Description Usage Arguments Details Value References See Also Examples

Fits a Gaussian (normal) EMOS model to a given training set.

1 2 | ```
fitMOSnormal(ensembleData, control = controlMOSnormal(),
exchangeable = NULL)
``` |

`ensembleData` |
An |

`control` |
A list of control values for the fitting functions specified via the function controlMOSnormal. For details and default values, see controlMOSnormal. |

`exchangeable` |
An optional numeric or character vector or factor indicating groups of
ensemble members that are exchangeable (indistinguishable).
The models have equal EMOS coefficients within each group.
If supplied, this argument will override any specification of
exchangeability in |

Given an ensemble of size *m*: *X_1, … , X_m*, the
following Gaussian model is fit by `ensembleMOSnormal`

:

* Y ~ N(a + b_1 X_1 + ... + b_m X_m , c + dS^2).*

`B`

is a vector of fitted regression coefficients: *b_1,
… ,b_m*. Specifically, *a,b_1,… , b_m, c, d* are
fitted to optimize
`control$scoringRule`

over the specified training period using
`optim`

with `method = control$optimRule`

.

A list with the following output components:

`a` |
The fitted intercept. |

`B` |
The fitted EMOS coefficients. |

`c,d` |
The fitted variance parameters, see details. |

T. Gneiting, A. E. Raftery, A. H. Westveld and T. Goldman,
Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output
statistics and minimum CRPS estimation.
*Monthly Weather Review* 133:1098–1118, 2005.

`controlMOSnormal`

,
`ensembleMOSnormal`

,

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 | ```
data("ensBMAtest", package = "ensembleBMA")
ensMemNames <- c("gfs","cmcg","eta","gasp","jma","ngps","tcwb","ukmo")
obs <- paste("T2", "obs", sep = ".")
ens <- paste("T2", ensMemNames, sep = ".")
tempTestData <- ensembleData(forecasts = ensBMAtest[,ens],
dates = ensBMAtest[,"vdate"],
observations = ensBMAtest[,obs],
station = ensBMAtest[,"station"],
forecastHour = 48,
initializationTime = "00")
tempTrain <- trainingData(tempTestData, trainingDays = 30,
date = "2008010100")
tempTrainFit <- fitMOSnormal(tempTrain)
``` |

```
Loading required package: ensembleBMA
Loading required package: chron
Loading required package: evd
Attaching package: 'ensembleMOS'
The following objects are masked from 'package:ensembleBMA':
brierScore, cdf, crps, quantileForecast, trainingData
```

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