Description Usage Arguments Details Value References See Also Examples

Fits a Gaussian (normal) EMOS model to ensemble forecasts for specified dates.

1 2 3 | ```
ensembleMOSnormal(ensembleData, trainingDays, consecutive = FALSE,
dates = NULL, control = controlMOSnormal(),
warmStart = FALSE, exchangeable = NULL)
``` |

`ensembleData` |
An |

`trainingDays` |
An integer giving the number of time steps (e.g. days) in the training period. There is no default. |

`consecutive` |
If |

`dates` |
The dates for which EMOS forecasting models are desired.
By default, this will be all dates in |

`control` |
A list of control values for the fitting functions specified via the function controlMOSnormal. For details and default values, see controlMOSnormal. |

`warmStart` |
If |

`exchangeable` |
A numeric or character vector or factor indicating groups of
ensemble members that are exchangeable (indistinguishable).
The modeling will have equal parameters within each group.
The default determines exchangeability from |

Given an ensemble of size *m*: *X_1, … , X_m*, the
following Gaussian model is fit by `ensembleMOSnormal`

:

* Y ~ N(a + b_1 X_1 + ... + b_m X_m , c + dS^2).*

`B`

is a vector of fitted regression coefficients: *b_1,
… ,b_m*. Specifically, *a,b_1,… , b_m, c, d* are
fitted to optimize
`control$scoringRule`

over the specified training period using
`optim`

with `method = control$optimRule`

.

A list with the following output components:

`training` |
A list containing information on the training length and lag and the number of instances used for training for each modeling date. |

`a` |
A vector of fitted EMOS intercept parameters for each date. |

`B` |
A matrix of fitted EMOS coefficients for each date. |

`c,d` |
Vectors of the fitted variance parameters for each date, see details. |

T. Gneiting, A. E. Raftery, A. H. Westveld and T. Goldman,
Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output
statistics and minimum CRPS estimation.
*Monthly Weather Review* 133:1098–1118, 2005.

`controlMOSnormal`

,
`fitMOSnormal`

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 | ```
data("ensBMAtest", package = "ensembleBMA")
ensMemNames <- c("gfs","cmcg","eta","gasp","jma","ngps","tcwb","ukmo")
obs <- paste("T2", "obs", sep = ".")
ens <- paste("T2", ensMemNames, sep = ".")
tempTestData <- ensembleData(forecasts = ensBMAtest[,ens],
dates = ensBMAtest[,"vdate"],
observations = ensBMAtest[,obs],
station = ensBMAtest[,"station"],
forecastHour = 48,
initializationTime = "00")
tempTestFit <- ensembleMOSnormal(tempTestData, trainingDays = 25)
``` |

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