Description Usage Arguments Details Value References See Also Examples

Computes quantiles for the probability distribution function (PDF) for ensemble forecasting models.

1 | ```
quantileForecast(fit, ensembleData, quantiles = 0.5, dates = NULL, ...)
``` |

`fit` |
A model fit to ensemble forecasting data. |

`ensembleData` |
An |

`quantiles` |
The vector of desired quantiles for the PDF of the EMOS model. |

`dates` |
The dates for which the quantile forecasts will be computed.
These dates must be consistent with |

`...` |
Included for generic function compatibility. |

This method is generic, and can be applied to any ensemble forecasting model. This can be used to compute prediction intervals for the PDF.

A matrix of forecasts corresponding to the desired quantiles.

T. Gneiting, A. E. Raftery, A. H. Westveld and T. Goldman,
Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output
statistics and minimum CRPS estimation.
*Monthly Weather Review* 133:1098–1118, 2005.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 | ```
data("ensBMAtest", package = "ensembleBMA")
ensMemNames <- c("gfs","cmcg","eta","gasp","jma","ngps","tcwb","ukmo")
obs <- paste("T2", "obs", sep = ".")
ens <- paste("T2", ensMemNames, sep = ".")
tempTestData <- ensembleData(forecasts = ensBMAtest[,ens],
dates = ensBMAtest[,"vdate"],
observations = ensBMAtest[,obs],
station = ensBMAtest[,"station"],
forecastHour = 48,
initializationTime = "00")
tempTestFit <- ensembleMOS(tempTestData, trainingDays = 25,
dates = c("2008010100", "2008010200"),
model = "normal")
tempTestForc <- quantileForecast(tempTestFit, tempTestData)
``` |

```
Loading required package: ensembleBMA
Loading required package: chron
Loading required package: evd
Attaching package: 'ensembleMOS'
The following objects are masked from 'package:ensembleBMA':
brierScore, cdf, crps, quantileForecast, trainingData
modeling for date 2008010100 ...
(Intercept) T2.gfs T2.cmcg T2.eta T2.gasp T2.jma
-17.42 0.26 0.19 0.22 0.00 0.24
T2.ngps T2.tcwb T2.ukmo
0.15 0.00 0.00
1.14 0.00
modeling for date 2008010200 ...
(Intercept) T2.gfs T2.cmcg T2.eta T2.gasp T2.jma
-18.42 0.25 0.20 0.22 0.01 0.22
T2.ngps T2.tcwb T2.ukmo
0.14 0.01 0.02
1.12 0.00
```

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