Nothing
## ---- SETTINGS-knitr, include=FALSE-------------------------------------------
stopifnot(require(knitr))
opts_chunk$set(
comment=NA,
message = FALSE,
warning = FALSE,
eval = identical(Sys.getenv("NOT_CRAN"), "true"),
dev = "png",
dpi = 150,
fig.asp = 0.618,
fig.width = 5,
out.width = "60%",
fig.align = "center"
)
## ---- SETTINGS-gg, include=TRUE-----------------------------------------------
library(ggplot2)
library(bayesplot)
theme_set(bayesplot::theme_default())
## ----lm-clouds-ols------------------------------------------------------------
data("clouds", package = "HSAUR3")
ols <- lm(rainfall ~ seeding * (sne + cloudcover + prewetness + echomotion) +
time, data = clouds)
round(coef(ols), 3)
## ----lm-clouds-mcmc, results='hide'-------------------------------------------
library(rstanarm)
post <-
stan_lm(
rainfall ~ seeding * (sne + cloudcover + prewetness + echomotion) + time,
data = clouds,
prior = R2(location = 0.2),
seed = 12345
)
post
## ---- echo=FALSE--------------------------------------------------------------
print(post)
## ----lm-clouds-ate-plot-------------------------------------------------------
clouds_cf <- clouds
clouds_cf$seeding[] <- "yes"
y1_rep <- posterior_predict(post, newdata = clouds_cf)
clouds_cf$seeding[] <- "no"
y0_rep <- posterior_predict(post, newdata = clouds_cf)
qplot(x = c(y1_rep - y0_rep), geom = "histogram", xlab = "Estimated ATE")
## ----lm-clouds-simple, results="hide"-----------------------------------------
simple <-
stan_glm(
rainfall ~ seeding * (sne + cloudcover + prewetness + echomotion) + time,
data = clouds,
family = gaussian(),
prior = cauchy(),
prior_intercept = cauchy(),
seed = 12345
)
## ----lm-clouds-loo, warning=TRUE----------------------------------------------
(loo_post <- loo(post))
loo_compare(loo_post, loo(simple))
## ----lm-clouds-plot-loo-------------------------------------------------------
plot(loo_post, label_points = TRUE)
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