FitDoubleLogElmore <-
function(
x,
t = index(x),
tout = t,
return.par = FALSE,
plot = FALSE,
hessian = FALSE,
sf=quantile(x, probs=c(0.05, 0.95), na.rm=TRUE),
...
) {
.normalize <- function(x, sf) (x-sf[1])/(sf[2]-sf[1])
.backnormalize <- function(x, sf) (x+sf[1]/(sf[2]-sf[1]))*(sf[2]-sf[1])
if (any(is.na(x))) stop('NA in the time series are not allowed: fill them with e.g. na.approx()')
if (class(index(x))[1]=='POSIXct') {
doy.vector <- as.numeric(format(index(x), '%j'))
index(x) <- doy.vector
t <- index(x)
tout <- t
}
n <- length(na.omit(x))
if (n < 7) {
if (return.par) return(rep(NA, 7))
if (!return.par) return(rep(NA, length(tout)))
}
n <- length(x)
x <- .normalize(x, sf=sf)
avg <- mean(x, na.rm=TRUE)
mx <- max(x, na.rm=TRUE)
mn <- min(x, na.rm=TRUE)
ampl <- mx - mn
.doubleLog <- function(par, t) {
m1 <- par[1]
m2 <- par[2]
m3 <- par[3]
m4 <- par[4]
m5 <- par[5]
m6 <- par[6]
m7 <- par[7]
m3l <- m3 / m4
m4l <- 1 / m4
m5l <- m5 / m6
m6l <- 1 / m6
# xpred <- m1 + (m2 - m7 * t) * ( (1/(1 + exp(((m3/m4) - t)/(1/m4)))) - (1/(1 + exp(((m5/m6) - t)/(1/m6)))) )
xpred <- m1 + (m2 - m7 * t) * ( (1/(1 + exp((m3l - t)/m4l))) - (1/(1 + exp((m5l - t)/m6l))) )
return(xpred)
}
.error <- function(par, x, t) {
if (any(is.infinite(par))) return(99999)
xpred <- .doubleLog(par, t=t)
sse <- sum((xpred - x)^2, na.rm=TRUE)
return(sse)
}
doy <- quantile(t, c(0.25, 0.75), na.rm=TRUE)
prior <- rbind(
c(mn, mx-mn, 200, 1.5, 300, 1.5, 0.002),
c(mn, mx-mn, 100, 0.5, 200, 0.9, 0.002),
c(mn, mx-mn, 50, 0.5, 300, 1.2, 0.05),
c(mn, mx-mn, 300, 2, 350, 2.5, 0.05)
)
if (plot) plot(t, x)
opt.l <- apply(prior, 1, optim, .error, x=x, t=t, method="BFGS", control=list(maxit=100), hessian=hessian) # fit from different prior values
opt.df <- cbind(cost=unlist(llply(opt.l, function(opt) opt$value)), convergence=unlist(llply(opt.l, function(opt) opt$convergence)), ldply(opt.l, function(opt) opt$par))
best <- which.min(opt.df$cost)
if (opt.df$convergence[best] == 1) { # if maximum iterations where reached - restart from best with more iterations
opt <- opt.l[[best]]
opt <- optim(opt.l[[best]]$par, .error, x=x, t=t, method="BFGS", control=list(maxit=700), hessian=hessian)
prior <- rbind(prior, opt$par)
xpred <- .doubleLog(opt$par, t)
} else if (opt.df$convergence[best] == 0) {
opt <- opt.l[[best]]
prior <- rbind(prior, opt$par)
xpred <- .doubleLog(opt$par, t)
}
if (plot) {
llply(opt.l, function(opt) {
xpred <- .doubleLog(opt$par, t)
lines(t, xpred, col="cyan")
})
lines(t, xpred, col="blue", lwd=2)
}
if (opt$convergence != 0) {
opt$par[] <- NA
xpred <- rep(NA, length(tout))
} else {
xpred <- .doubleLog(opt$par, tout)
}
xpred <- .backnormalize(xpred, sf=sf)
xpred.out <- zoo(xpred, order.by=t)
names(opt$par) <- paste("m", 1:7, sep="")
if (hessian) {
opt.new <- optim(opt$par, .error, x=x, t=t, method="BFGS", hessian=TRUE
)
.qr.solve <- function(a, b, tol = 1e-07, LAPACK=TRUE) {
if (!is.qr(a))
a <- qr(a, tol = tol, LAPACK=LAPACK)
nc <- ncol(a$qr)
nr <- nrow(a$qr)
if (a$rank != min(nc, nr))
stop("singular matrix 'a' in solve")
if (missing(b)) {
if (nc != nr)
stop("only square matrices can be inverted")
b <- diag(1, nc)
}
res <- qr.coef(a, b)
res[is.na(res)] <- 0
res
}
vc <- .qr.solve(opt$hessian)
npar <- nrow(vc)
s2 <- opt.df$cost[best]^2 / (n - npar)
std.errors <- sqrt(diag(vc) * s2) # standard errors
}
fit.formula <- expression(m1 + (m2 - m7 * t) * ( (1/(1 + exp(((m3/m4) - t)/(1/m4)))) - (1/(1 + exp(((m5/m6) - t)/(1/m6))))))
output <- list(predicted=xpred.out, params=opt$par, formula=fit.formula, sf=sf)
if (hessian) output <- list(predicted = xpred.out, params = opt$par, formula = fit.formula, stdError=std.errors, sf=sf)
return(output)
}
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