GuFit <- function (ts, uncert=FALSE, nrep=100, ncores='all', sf=quantile(ts, probs=c(0.05, 0.95), na.rm=TRUE)) {
if (class(index(ts))[1]=='POSIXct') {
doy.vector <- as.numeric(format(index(ts), '%j'))
index(ts) <- doy.vector
}
fit <- FitDoubleLogGu(ts, sf=sf)
residuals <- ts - as.vector(fit$predicted)
# res.range <- range(residuals, na.rm=TRUE)
# mean.res <- mean(residuals, na.rm=TRUE)
sd.res <- sd(residuals, na.rm=TRUE)
## absolute values to compute weights
res2 <- abs(residuals)
## normalized between 0 and 1, get weights for random noise generation
res3 <- res2/max(res2)
sign.res <- sign(residuals)
if (uncert) {
if (ncores=='all') cores <- detectCores() else cores <- ncores
cl <- makeCluster(cores)
# cl <- makeCluster(detectCores()-1)
registerDoParallel(cl)
coefs <- c(5.246, 0.00441, -0.731)
.pred.fun <- function(coefs, cores, nrep) {
expected.time <- coefs[1] + coefs[2]*nrep + coefs[3]*log(cores)
names(expected.time) <- NULL
return(round(exp(expected.time)/60))
}
min.exp.time <- .pred.fun(coefs, cores, nrep)
# expected.time <- nrep * 0.797
# min.exp.time <- round(expected.time/60)
print(paste0('estimated computation time (',cores,' cores): ', min.exp.time, ' mins'))
output <- foreach(a=1:nrep, .packages=c('phenopix'), .combine=c) %dopar% {
noise <- runif(length(ts), -sd.res, sd.res)
sign.noise <- sign(noise)
pos.no <- which(sign.res!=sign.noise)
if (length(pos.no)!=0) noise[pos.no] <- -noise[pos.no]
# randomly sample
noised <- ts + noise
fit.tmp <- try(FitDoubleLogGu(noised, sf=sf))
if (class(fit.tmp)=='try-error') out.single <- list(predicted=rep(NA, length(ts)), params=rep(NA,9)) else {
out.single <- list(predicted=fit.tmp$predicted, params=fit.tmp$params)
}
# ratio <- a/nrep*100
# print(paste('computing uncertainty: ', ratio, '% done', sep=''))
}
stopCluster(cl)
pred.pos <- which(names(output)=='predicted')
par.pos <- which(names(output)=='params')
predicted.df <- as.data.frame(output[pred.pos])
names(predicted.df) <- paste0('X',1:length(predicted.df))
predicted.df <- zoo(predicted.df, order.by=index(ts))
params.df <- as.data.frame(output[par.pos])
names(params.df) <- names(predicted.df)
uncertainty.list <- list(predicted=predicted.df, params=params.df)
returned <- list(fit=fit, uncertainty=uncertainty.list)
return(returned)
} else {
returned <- list(fit=fit, uncertainty=NULL)
(return(returned))
}
}
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