R/SEIR_factotum.R
In marzione00/COVID_19_HACK: Covid_19 outbreak analysis
Defines functions
SEIR_factotum
Documented in
SEIR_factotum
#' SEIR factotum V2
#'
#' Solves a normalised (population=1) simplified SEIR system (no immunity loss, no mortality):
#'
#' 1_ extract the S, E, I, R, information from the input data P (positive) and R using the distributions IT, SRT, IBST.
#' The default distribution for IT is an exponential with rate 1/5.2 (5.2 being the mean Incubation Time)
#' https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
#' The default distribution for SRT is an exponential with rate log(2)/5 (5 being the median time from symptomaticity to removal - hospitalisation)
#' https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_13_aprile.pdf
#' The default distribution for IBST is an none as no data is available
#'
#' 2_ parameters sigma and gamma are estimated as 1/mean(IT) and 1/mean(SRT) resp
#'
#' 3_a if the user inputs a valid Rt (consisting of R0_msp and R0_stagesof length RN and RN-1 resp), SEIR_factotum will solve the multi-stage SEIR with
#' parameters (at n-th stage) sigma, gamma, beta[n]=Rt[n]*gamma. It will return U and sol, U being the refined data and sol being
#' the solution of the SEIR equation.
#'
#' 3_b if no valid Rt is passed, SEIR_factotum will estimate an initial R0 using asymptotic properties of the series I in the early stages
#' (from R0_exp_est_start to R0_exp_est_end, meaning R0 exponential estimate start/end),
#' then it will solve a single stage SEIR system with parameters sigma, gamma, beta=R0*gamma.
#' This can be used to show how the growth would have been like if no measures had taken place.
#' It will return U and sol as above, plus result of the estimation of R0
#' @export
####
# Example1: solve the SEIR for 10 days in the future, use normal distribution for IBST,
# estimate the initial R0 up to day 4.
# Retrieve the real data U, the solution sol, the estimated R0, info about R0.
#
# out <- SEIR_factotum(P,R,N, future=10, distr_IBST='norm', par_IBST=list('mean'=2, 'std'=1),
# R0_exp_est_end=4)
#
# S<-out$S; E<-out$E; I<-out$I; R<-out$R
# S_<-out$S_; E_<-out$E_; I_<-out$I_; R_<-out$R_
# U <- list('S'=S, 'E'=E, 'I'=I, 'R'=R)
# sol <- list('S_'=S_, 'E_'=E_, 'I_'=I_, 'R_'=R_)
#
# R0<-out$R0; R0_time_start<-out$start; R0_time_end<-out$end; R0_fitting<-out$R0_fitting
#
# Example2: solve the SEIR up to data availability (that is, the length of the refined (S,E,I,R)
# time series, in general less than the length of input time series P and R),
# with one time fixed parameter R0_input (please note that R0_stages is required).
# Retrieve U and sol as above.
#
# out <- SEIR_factotum(P,R,N, future=0, R0_msp=R0_input, R0_stages=c())
#
# S<-out$S; E<-out$E; I<-out$I; R<-out$R
# S_<-out$S_; E_<-out$E_; I_<-out$I_; R_<-out$R_
# U <- list('S'=S, 'E'=E, 'I'=I, 'R'=R)
# sol <- list('S_'=S_, 'E_'=E_, 'I_'=I_, 'R_'=R_)
#
# Example3: solve the SEIR up to day 45 (20 S,E,I,R observations + 25 = future),
# with a time varying parameter Rt,
# Rt = 8 from day 0 to day 5,
# 2 from day 5 to day 10,
# 4 from day 10 to day 20 (or in general up to the last observation)
# 4 from day 20 to day 45 (the last value is used from day end to day end+future)
# Retrieve U and sol.
#
# Rt = c(8,2,4)
# R0_stages = c(5,10)
#
# out <- SEIR_factotum(P,R,N, future=25, end=20, R0_msp=Rt, R0_stages=c())
#
# S<-out$S; E<-out$E; I<-out$I; R<-out$R
# S_<-out$S_; E_<-out$E_; I_<-out$I_; R_<-out$R_
# U <- list('S'=S, 'E'=E, 'I'=I, 'R'=R)
# sol <- list('S_'=S_, 'E_'=E_, 'I_'=I_, 'R_'=R_)
#
SEIR_factotum <- function(P, R, N, end, normalise=TRUE,
time_step=1, future=0,
distr_IT='exp', distr_SRT='exp', distr_IBST='none',
par_IT=list('rate'=1/5.2), par_SRT=list('rate'=log(2)/5), par_IBST=list(),
R0_exp_est_start=1, R0_exp_est_end=5, R0_msp, R0_stages=c(),
fit_Rt=FALSE, plot_data=TRUE) {
#----Input Checking----
if(length(R) < 5)
stop('Not enough Removed data')
if(length(P) < 5)
stop('Not enough Positive data')
#----"MACROS"----
ERR_generation <- 'correct use : distr_X = \'exp\', par_X = list(\'rate\'=float) \tOR : distr_X = \'norm\', par_X = list(\'mean\'=float, \'std\'=float\tOR : distr_X = \'none\''
WARNING_end <- 'end > length(P). n_obs = min(end, length(P))'
#----Functions----
# Extract S, E, I, R from P, R. population is normalised to N=1
refine_data <- function(P, R, IT, SRT, IBST, normalise=TRUE, end) {
if(end<=length(P))
n_obs <- end
else {
n_obs <- length(P)
warning(WARNING_end)
}
m = max(length(IT), length(SRT), length(IBST))
ITl = length(IT)
SRTl = length(SRT)
IBSTl = length(IBST)
S = integer(n_obs-m)
E = integer(n_obs-m)
I = integer(n_obs-m)
R = R[1:(n_obs-m)]
for(t in (1:(n_obs-m))){
IT_temp = c(IT, integer(n_obs-ITl-t+1))
SRT_temp = c(SRT, integer(n_obs-SRTl-t+1))
IBST_temp = c(IBST, integer(n_obs-IBSTl-t+1))
E[t] <- ((IT_temp+SRT_temp)/2) %*% P[t:n_obs]
I[t] <- ((IBST_temp+SRT_temp)/2) %*% P[t:n_obs]
}
S = N-E-I-R
if(normalise){
S = S/N
E = E/N
I = I/N
R = R/N
}
return(data.frame(S, E, I, R))
}
# SEIR differential equations
SEIR_model <- function(t, state, parameters){
with(as.list(c(state, parameters)), {
dS <- -beta*S*I
dE <- beta*S*I-sigma*E
dI <- sigma*E-gamma*I
dR <- gamma*I
list(c(dS, dE, dI, dR))
})
}
# fit R0 optimising function distance d(U, U_) = sup(dist(U[t], U_[t]))
ms_fit_R0 <- function(U0, U, par_fixed, L, time_step){
target <- function(beta, sigma, gamma, U0, U, integration_extremes){
dist <- function(X, Y) {
if(length(X)==length(Y))
out <- sqrt(as.numeric(sum((X-Y)^2)))
else
out <- NULL
return(out)
}
parameters <- list('beta'=beta, 'sigma'=sigma, 'gamma'=gamma)
eval_time <- seq(0, (integration_extremes[2]-integration_extremes[1]))
D <- c()
# U in the time step we're considering, x+1 points. integration is performed on x+1 points from
# 0 to Ln-L(n-1)
U <- data.frame(U)
Ut <- U[integration_extremes[1] + eval_time, ]
U_ <- deSolve::ode(y=U0, times=eval_time, func=SEIR_model, parms=parameters)
U_ <- data.frame(U_)
colnames(U_) <- c('time', 'S_', 'E_', 'I_', 'R_')
U_ <- U_[!(names(U_)=='time')]
for(t in (1:length(Ut$S)))
D[t] <- dist(Ut[t,], U_[t,])
out <- max(D)
return(out)
}
#---- Operations ----
M <- length(L) # number of stages
sigma <- par_fixed$sigma
gamma <- par_fixed$gamma
check <- FALSE #is this the last iteration? (ie from LM-1 to LM)
opt_beta <- c()
total <- data.frame() # solution from 0 to L[M]-1
# at step n:
# find the interval of interest for ode (eval_time) and target(integration_extremes)
# polish U0 in order to use it in further calculations
# find the best parameter (opt_beta[n]) optimising target
# solve (again) the ode with new_parms as parameters of SEIR_model, polihs solution
# define initial data of stage n+1
# drop the last element of solution n
# save solution as stage n in total
for(n in (1:M)){
if(n==1){
eval_time <- seq(0, L[1], by=time_step)
integration_extremes <- c(0, L[1])
}
else {
eval_time <- seq(0, L[n]-L[n-1], by=time_step)
integration_extremes <- c(L[n-1], L[n])
}
U0 <- as.numeric(U0)
names(U0) <- c('S', 'E', 'I', 'R') # so that deSolve::ode can use appropriately the parameters
opt_beta[n] <- stats::optimise(f=target,
sigma=sigma, gamma=gamma,
U0=U0, U=U,
integration_extremes=integration_extremes,
interval=c(0,10))$minimum
new_parms <- c(par_fixed, 'beta'=opt_beta[n])
sol <- deSolve::ode(y=U0, times=eval_time, func=SEIR_model, parms=new_parms)
sol <- data.frame(sol)
sol <- sol[!(names(sol)=='time')] # drop the time column
if(n==1)
U0 <- sol[L[n]+1,]
else
U0 <- sol[L[n]-L[n-1]+1,]
if(n==1)
total <- sol[-length(sol[[1]]),]
else {
if(n<M | future>1) # OR DROP ANYWAY?
sol <- sol[-length(sol[[1]]),]
total <- rbind(total, sol) # append the new solution
}
}
rownames(total) <- 1:nrow(total)
time <- seq(0, future*L[M], by=time_step) # the evaluation times for total
names(total) <- c('S_', 'E_', 'I_', 'R_')
out <- list('sol'=total, 'time'=time, 'beta'=opt_beta)
return(out)
}
# Solve SEIR
solve_SEIR <- function(U0, eval_time, parameters){
state <- c('S'=U0[1], 'E'=U0[2], 'I'=U0[3], 'R'=U0[4])
out <- deSolve::ode(y=state, times=eval_time, func=SEIR_model, parms=parameters)
out <- data.frame(out)
colnames(out) <- c('time', 'S_', 'E_', 'I_', 'R_')
return(out)
}
# Solve multi stage SEIR
solve_ms_SEIR <- function(U0, gamma, sigma, R0_msp, R0_stages, time_step){
var_names <- list('S', 'E', 'I', 'R')
par_fixed <- list('sigma'=sigma, 'gamma'=gamma)
msp <- R0_msp*gamma
L <- R0_stages
ode <- multi_stage_ODE(U0, SEIR_model, var_names, par_fixed, msp, 'beta', L, time_step)
sol <- ode$sol; time <- ode$time
S_<-sol$S; E_<-sol$E; I_<-sol$I; R_<-sol$R
out <- data.frame(time, S_, E_, I_, R_)
colnames(out) <- c('time', 'S_', 'E_', 'I_', 'R_')
return(out)
}
# Plotting, plotly. returns a plotly object
plotty <- function(U, sol, name, plot_data=TRUE){
S<-U$S; E<-U$E; I<-U$I; R<-U$R
S_<-sol$S; E_<-sol$E; I_<-sol$I; R_<-sol$R
x <- (1:length(S))
x_ <- (1:length(S_))
plotS <- FALSE
# Should it print one graph or multiple? It depends: if S_ and E_ are comparable at some point, one graph is enough
for(t in (1:length(S_)))
if((S_<5*E_)[t])
plotS <- TRUE
trace_0 <- E
trace_1 <- E_
trace_2 <- I
trace_3 <- I_
trace_4 <- R
trace_5 <- R_
trace_6 <- S
trace_7 <- S_
colors <- c('r', 'b', 'g', 'y')
df <- data.frame(x, trace_0, trace_2, trace_4, trace_6)
df_ <- data.frame(x_, trace_1, trace_3, trace_5, trace_7)
if(plotS){
fig <- plotly::plot_ly()
if(plot_data){
fig <- fig %>% plotly::add_trace(df, x = ~x, y = ~trace_6, name = 'S', type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color=colors[1])
fig <- fig %>% plotly::add_trace(df, x = ~x, y = ~trace_0, name = 'E', type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color=colors[2])
fig <- fig %>% plotly::add_trace(df, x = ~x, y = ~trace_2, name = 'I', type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color=colors[3])
fig <- fig %>% plotly::add_trace(df, x = ~x, y = ~trace_4, name = 'R', type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color=colors[4])
}
fig <- fig %>% plotly::add_trace(df_, x = ~x_, y = ~trace_7, name = 'S_', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines', color=colors[1])
fig <- fig %>% plotly::add_trace(df_, x = ~x_, y = ~trace_1, name = 'E_', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines', color=colors[2])
fig <- fig %>% plotly::add_trace(df_, x = ~x_, y = ~trace_3, name = 'I_', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines', color=colors[3])
fig <- fig %>% plotly::add_trace(df_, x = ~x_, y = ~trace_5, name = 'R_', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines', color=colors[4])
fig <- fig %>% plotly::layout(title = name)
}
else {
fig1 <- plotly::plot_ly()
if(plot_data){
fig1 <- fig1 %>% plotly::add_trace(df, x = ~x, y = ~trace_0, name = 'E', type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color=colors[1])
fig1 <- fig1 %>% plotly::add_trace(df, x = ~x, y = ~trace_2, name = 'I', type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color=colors[2])
fig1 <- fig1 %>% plotly::add_trace(df, x = ~x, y = ~trace_4, name = 'R', type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color=colors[3])
}
fig1 <- fig1 %>% plotly::add_trace(df_, x = ~x_, y = ~trace_1, name = 'E_', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines', color=colors[1])
fig1 <- fig1 %>% plotly::add_trace(df_, x = ~x_, y = ~trace_3, name = 'I_', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines', color=colors[2])
fig1 <- fig1 %>% plotly::add_trace(df_, x = ~x_, y = ~trace_5, name = 'R_', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines', color=colors[3])
fig1 <- fig1 %>% plotly::layout(title = name)
fig2 <- plot_ly()
if(plot_data)
fig2 <- fig2 %>% plotly::add_trace(df, x = ~x, y = ~trace_6, name = 'S', type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color=colors[4])
fig2 <- fig2 %>% plotly::add_trace(df_, x = ~x_, y = ~trace_7, name = 'S_', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines', color=colors[4])
fig2 <- fig2 %>% plotly::layout(title = name)
fig <- plotly::subplot(fig1, fig2)
}
return(fig)
}
#----Operations----
# Generate distribution only up to 3rd quartile
if(is.null(IT <- covid19::generate(distr_IT, par_IT))) stop('ERROR in IT generation : ', ERR_generation)
if(is.null(SRT <- covid19::generate(distr_SRT, par_SRT))) stop('ERROR in SRT generation : ', ERR_generation)
if(is.null(IBST <- covid19::generate(distr_IBST, par_IBST))) stop('ERROR in IBST generation : ', ERR_generation)
# Calculate sigma = 1/E[IT]. Calculate gamma = 1/E[IBST+SRT]
sg_out<-calculate_sigma_gamma(IT, SRT, IBST); sigma<-sg_out$sigma; gamma<-sg_out$gamma
# Extract S, E, I, R from P, R
U<-refine_data(P, R, IT=IT, SRT=SRT, IBST=IBST, end=end, normalise=normalise); S<-U$S; E<-U$E; I<-U$I; R<-U$R
# Initial conditions
U0 <- as.numeric(U[1,])
# ALL GIVEN
# elongate R0_stages if feasible (last element<length(S))
# note that NOW R0_msp and R0_stages have the same length
if(!missing(R0_msp)){
if(length(R0_stages) > 0)
if(R0_stages[length(R0_stages)] >= length(S))
stop(sprintf('Each element of R0_stages has to be strictly < %i = length(S)', length(S)))
R0_stages <- c(R0_stages, length(S))
if(length(R0_msp)==length(R0_stages))
M <- length(R0_msp)
else
stop('Error : length(R0_msp)!=length(R0_stages)-1')
# add future stage (from Length(S) to future+Length(S))
if(future>0){
# add one more stage to Rt, from R0_stages[M] to R0_stages[M]+future
R0_msp[M+1] <- R0_msp[M]
used_time <- c(R0_stages, (future+R0_stages[M]))
}
else
used_time <- R0_stages
sol <- solve_ms_SEIR(U0, gamma, sigma, R0_msp, used_time, time_step)
out <- c(U, sol)
}
# Rt
else if(fit_Rt){
if(length(R0_stages) > 0)
if(R0_stages[length(R0_stages)] >= length(S))
stop(sprintf('Each element of R0_stages has to be strictly < %i = length(S)', length(S)))
R0_stages <- c(R0_stages, length(S))
if(future>0)
used_time <- c(R0_stages, (future+R0_stages[M]))
else
used_time <- R0_stages
sol <- list()
par_fixed <- list('gamma'=gamma, 'sigma'=sigma)
sol_Rt <- ms_fit_R0(U0, U, par_fixed, used_time, time_step)
beta <- sol_Rt$beta
Rt <- beta/gamma
sol <- sol_Rt$sol
out <- c(U, sol)
out$Rt <- Rt
}
# R0
else {
R0_out <- estimate_R0(sigma, gamma, I, R0_exp_est_start, R0_exp_est_end); R0<-R0_out$R0
beta <- R0*gamma
eval_time <- seq(0, (future+length(U$I)-1), by = time_step)
parameters <- c(beta=beta, sigma=sigma, gamma=gamma)
sol <- solve_SEIR(U0, eval_time, parameters)
# Returns SEIR, S_E_I_R_, time, R0, start (R0_time_start), end (R0_time_end), mean sq dist (mean_fitting)
out <- c(U, sol, R0_out)
}
# Plot
if(plot_data)
name <- 'SEIR datapoints and solution'
else
name <- 'SEIR solution'
# fig <- plotty(U, sol, name, plot_data)
# out$plot <- fig
return(out)
}
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Defines functions SEIR_factotum
Documented in SEIR_factotum
#' SEIR factotum V2
#'
#' Solves a normalised (population=1) simplified SEIR system (no immunity loss, no mortality):
#'
#' 1_ extract the S, E, I, R, information from the input data P (positive) and R using the distributions IT, SRT, IBST.
#' The default distribution for IT is an exponential with rate 1/5.2 (5.2 being the mean Incubation Time)
#' https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
#' The default distribution for SRT is an exponential with rate log(2)/5 (5 being the median time from symptomaticity to removal - hospitalisation)
#' https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_13_aprile.pdf
#' The default distribution for IBST is an none as no data is available
#'
#' 2_ parameters sigma and gamma are estimated as 1/mean(IT) and 1/mean(SRT) resp
#'
#' 3_a if the user inputs a valid Rt (consisting of R0_msp and R0_stagesof length RN and RN-1 resp), SEIR_factotum will solve the multi-stage SEIR with
#' parameters (at n-th stage) sigma, gamma, beta[n]=Rt[n]*gamma. It will return U and sol, U being the refined data and sol being
#' the solution of the SEIR equation.
#'
#' 3_b if no valid Rt is passed, SEIR_factotum will estimate an initial R0 using asymptotic properties of the series I in the early stages
#' (from R0_exp_est_start to R0_exp_est_end, meaning R0 exponential estimate start/end),
#' then it will solve a single stage SEIR system with parameters sigma, gamma, beta=R0*gamma.
#' This can be used to show how the growth would have been like if no measures had taken place.
#' It will return U and sol as above, plus result of the estimation of R0
#' @export
####
# Example1: solve the SEIR for 10 days in the future, use normal distribution for IBST,
# estimate the initial R0 up to day 4.
# Retrieve the real data U, the solution sol, the estimated R0, info about R0.
#
# out <- SEIR_factotum(P,R,N, future=10, distr_IBST='norm', par_IBST=list('mean'=2, 'std'=1),
# R0_exp_est_end=4)
#
# S<-out$S; E<-out$E; I<-out$I; R<-out$R
# S_<-out$S_; E_<-out$E_; I_<-out$I_; R_<-out$R_
# U <- list('S'=S, 'E'=E, 'I'=I, 'R'=R)
# sol <- list('S_'=S_, 'E_'=E_, 'I_'=I_, 'R_'=R_)
#
# R0<-out$R0; R0_time_start<-out$start; R0_time_end<-out$end; R0_fitting<-out$R0_fitting
#
# Example2: solve the SEIR up to data availability (that is, the length of the refined (S,E,I,R)
# time series, in general less than the length of input time series P and R),
# with one time fixed parameter R0_input (please note that R0_stages is required).
# Retrieve U and sol as above.
#
# out <- SEIR_factotum(P,R,N, future=0, R0_msp=R0_input, R0_stages=c())
#
# S<-out$S; E<-out$E; I<-out$I; R<-out$R
# S_<-out$S_; E_<-out$E_; I_<-out$I_; R_<-out$R_
# U <- list('S'=S, 'E'=E, 'I'=I, 'R'=R)
# sol <- list('S_'=S_, 'E_'=E_, 'I_'=I_, 'R_'=R_)
#
# Example3: solve the SEIR up to day 45 (20 S,E,I,R observations + 25 = future),
# with a time varying parameter Rt,
# Rt = 8 from day 0 to day 5,
# 2 from day 5 to day 10,
# 4 from day 10 to day 20 (or in general up to the last observation)
# 4 from day 20 to day 45 (the last value is used from day end to day end+future)
# Retrieve U and sol.
#
# Rt = c(8,2,4)
# R0_stages = c(5,10)
#
# out <- SEIR_factotum(P,R,N, future=25, end=20, R0_msp=Rt, R0_stages=c())
#
# S<-out$S; E<-out$E; I<-out$I; R<-out$R
# S_<-out$S_; E_<-out$E_; I_<-out$I_; R_<-out$R_
# U <- list('S'=S, 'E'=E, 'I'=I, 'R'=R)
# sol <- list('S_'=S_, 'E_'=E_, 'I_'=I_, 'R_'=R_)
#
SEIR_factotum <- function(P, R, N, end, normalise=TRUE,
time_step=1, future=0,
distr_IT='exp', distr_SRT='exp', distr_IBST='none',
par_IT=list('rate'=1/5.2), par_SRT=list('rate'=log(2)/5), par_IBST=list(),
R0_exp_est_start=1, R0_exp_est_end=5, R0_msp, R0_stages=c(),
fit_Rt=FALSE, plot_data=TRUE) {
#----Input Checking----
if(length(R) < 5)
stop('Not enough Removed data')
if(length(P) < 5)
stop('Not enough Positive data')
#----"MACROS"----
ERR_generation <- 'correct use : distr_X = \'exp\', par_X = list(\'rate\'=float) \tOR : distr_X = \'norm\', par_X = list(\'mean\'=float, \'std\'=float\tOR : distr_X = \'none\''
WARNING_end <- 'end > length(P). n_obs = min(end, length(P))'
#----Functions----
# Extract S, E, I, R from P, R. population is normalised to N=1
refine_data <- function(P, R, IT, SRT, IBST, normalise=TRUE, end) {
if(end<=length(P))
n_obs <- end
else {
n_obs <- length(P)
warning(WARNING_end)
}
m = max(length(IT), length(SRT), length(IBST))
ITl = length(IT)
SRTl = length(SRT)
IBSTl = length(IBST)
S = integer(n_obs-m)
E = integer(n_obs-m)
I = integer(n_obs-m)
R = R[1:(n_obs-m)]
for(t in (1:(n_obs-m))){
IT_temp = c(IT, integer(n_obs-ITl-t+1))
SRT_temp = c(SRT, integer(n_obs-SRTl-t+1))
IBST_temp = c(IBST, integer(n_obs-IBSTl-t+1))
E[t] <- ((IT_temp+SRT_temp)/2) %*% P[t:n_obs]
I[t] <- ((IBST_temp+SRT_temp)/2) %*% P[t:n_obs]
}
S = N-E-I-R
if(normalise){
S = S/N
E = E/N
I = I/N
R = R/N
}
return(data.frame(S, E, I, R))
}
# SEIR differential equations
SEIR_model <- function(t, state, parameters){
with(as.list(c(state, parameters)), {
dS <- -beta*S*I
dE <- beta*S*I-sigma*E
dI <- sigma*E-gamma*I
dR <- gamma*I
list(c(dS, dE, dI, dR))
})
}
# fit R0 optimising function distance d(U, U_) = sup(dist(U[t], U_[t]))
ms_fit_R0 <- function(U0, U, par_fixed, L, time_step){
target <- function(beta, sigma, gamma, U0, U, integration_extremes){
dist <- function(X, Y) {
if(length(X)==length(Y))
out <- sqrt(as.numeric(sum((X-Y)^2)))
else
out <- NULL
return(out)
}
parameters <- list('beta'=beta, 'sigma'=sigma, 'gamma'=gamma)
eval_time <- seq(0, (integration_extremes[2]-integration_extremes[1]))
D <- c()
# U in the time step we're considering, x+1 points. integration is performed on x+1 points from
# 0 to Ln-L(n-1)
U <- data.frame(U)
Ut <- U[integration_extremes[1] + eval_time, ]
U_ <- deSolve::ode(y=U0, times=eval_time, func=SEIR_model, parms=parameters)
U_ <- data.frame(U_)
colnames(U_) <- c('time', 'S_', 'E_', 'I_', 'R_')
U_ <- U_[!(names(U_)=='time')]
for(t in (1:length(Ut$S)))
D[t] <- dist(Ut[t,], U_[t,])
out <- max(D)
return(out)
}
#---- Operations ----
M <- length(L) # number of stages
sigma <- par_fixed$sigma
gamma <- par_fixed$gamma
check <- FALSE #is this the last iteration? (ie from LM-1 to LM)
opt_beta <- c()
total <- data.frame() # solution from 0 to L[M]-1
# at step n:
# find the interval of interest for ode (eval_time) and target(integration_extremes)
# polish U0 in order to use it in further calculations
# find the best parameter (opt_beta[n]) optimising target
# solve (again) the ode with new_parms as parameters of SEIR_model, polihs solution
# define initial data of stage n+1
# drop the last element of solution n
# save solution as stage n in total
for(n in (1:M)){
if(n==1){
eval_time <- seq(0, L[1], by=time_step)
integration_extremes <- c(0, L[1])
}
else {
eval_time <- seq(0, L[n]-L[n-1], by=time_step)
integration_extremes <- c(L[n-1], L[n])
}
U0 <- as.numeric(U0)
names(U0) <- c('S', 'E', 'I', 'R') # so that deSolve::ode can use appropriately the parameters
opt_beta[n] <- stats::optimise(f=target,
sigma=sigma, gamma=gamma,
U0=U0, U=U,
integration_extremes=integration_extremes,
interval=c(0,10))$minimum
new_parms <- c(par_fixed, 'beta'=opt_beta[n])
sol <- deSolve::ode(y=U0, times=eval_time, func=SEIR_model, parms=new_parms)
sol <- data.frame(sol)
sol <- sol[!(names(sol)=='time')] # drop the time column
if(n==1)
U0 <- sol[L[n]+1,]
else
U0 <- sol[L[n]-L[n-1]+1,]
if(n==1)
total <- sol[-length(sol[[1]]),]
else {
if(n<M | future>1) # OR DROP ANYWAY?
sol <- sol[-length(sol[[1]]),]
total <- rbind(total, sol) # append the new solution
}
}
rownames(total) <- 1:nrow(total)
time <- seq(0, future*L[M], by=time_step) # the evaluation times for total
names(total) <- c('S_', 'E_', 'I_', 'R_')
out <- list('sol'=total, 'time'=time, 'beta'=opt_beta)
return(out)
}
# Solve SEIR
solve_SEIR <- function(U0, eval_time, parameters){
state <- c('S'=U0[1], 'E'=U0[2], 'I'=U0[3], 'R'=U0[4])
out <- deSolve::ode(y=state, times=eval_time, func=SEIR_model, parms=parameters)
out <- data.frame(out)
colnames(out) <- c('time', 'S_', 'E_', 'I_', 'R_')
return(out)
}
# Solve multi stage SEIR
solve_ms_SEIR <- function(U0, gamma, sigma, R0_msp, R0_stages, time_step){
var_names <- list('S', 'E', 'I', 'R')
par_fixed <- list('sigma'=sigma, 'gamma'=gamma)
msp <- R0_msp*gamma
L <- R0_stages
ode <- multi_stage_ODE(U0, SEIR_model, var_names, par_fixed, msp, 'beta', L, time_step)
sol <- ode$sol; time <- ode$time
S_<-sol$S; E_<-sol$E; I_<-sol$I; R_<-sol$R
out <- data.frame(time, S_, E_, I_, R_)
colnames(out) <- c('time', 'S_', 'E_', 'I_', 'R_')
return(out)
}
# Plotting, plotly. returns a plotly object
plotty <- function(U, sol, name, plot_data=TRUE){
S<-U$S; E<-U$E; I<-U$I; R<-U$R
S_<-sol$S; E_<-sol$E; I_<-sol$I; R_<-sol$R
x <- (1:length(S))
x_ <- (1:length(S_))
plotS <- FALSE
# Should it print one graph or multiple? It depends: if S_ and E_ are comparable at some point, one graph is enough
for(t in (1:length(S_)))
if((S_<5*E_)[t])
plotS <- TRUE
trace_0 <- E
trace_1 <- E_
trace_2 <- I
trace_3 <- I_
trace_4 <- R
trace_5 <- R_
trace_6 <- S
trace_7 <- S_
colors <- c('r', 'b', 'g', 'y')
df <- data.frame(x, trace_0, trace_2, trace_4, trace_6)
df_ <- data.frame(x_, trace_1, trace_3, trace_5, trace_7)
if(plotS){
fig <- plotly::plot_ly()
if(plot_data){
fig <- fig %>% plotly::add_trace(df, x = ~x, y = ~trace_6, name = 'S', type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color=colors[1])
fig <- fig %>% plotly::add_trace(df, x = ~x, y = ~trace_0, name = 'E', type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color=colors[2])
fig <- fig %>% plotly::add_trace(df, x = ~x, y = ~trace_2, name = 'I', type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color=colors[3])
fig <- fig %>% plotly::add_trace(df, x = ~x, y = ~trace_4, name = 'R', type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color=colors[4])
}
fig <- fig %>% plotly::add_trace(df_, x = ~x_, y = ~trace_7, name = 'S_', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines', color=colors[1])
fig <- fig %>% plotly::add_trace(df_, x = ~x_, y = ~trace_1, name = 'E_', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines', color=colors[2])
fig <- fig %>% plotly::add_trace(df_, x = ~x_, y = ~trace_3, name = 'I_', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines', color=colors[3])
fig <- fig %>% plotly::add_trace(df_, x = ~x_, y = ~trace_5, name = 'R_', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines', color=colors[4])
fig <- fig %>% plotly::layout(title = name)
}
else {
fig1 <- plotly::plot_ly()
if(plot_data){
fig1 <- fig1 %>% plotly::add_trace(df, x = ~x, y = ~trace_0, name = 'E', type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color=colors[1])
fig1 <- fig1 %>% plotly::add_trace(df, x = ~x, y = ~trace_2, name = 'I', type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color=colors[2])
fig1 <- fig1 %>% plotly::add_trace(df, x = ~x, y = ~trace_4, name = 'R', type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color=colors[3])
}
fig1 <- fig1 %>% plotly::add_trace(df_, x = ~x_, y = ~trace_1, name = 'E_', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines', color=colors[1])
fig1 <- fig1 %>% plotly::add_trace(df_, x = ~x_, y = ~trace_3, name = 'I_', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines', color=colors[2])
fig1 <- fig1 %>% plotly::add_trace(df_, x = ~x_, y = ~trace_5, name = 'R_', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines', color=colors[3])
fig1 <- fig1 %>% plotly::layout(title = name)
fig2 <- plot_ly()
if(plot_data)
fig2 <- fig2 %>% plotly::add_trace(df, x = ~x, y = ~trace_6, name = 'S', type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color=colors[4])
fig2 <- fig2 %>% plotly::add_trace(df_, x = ~x_, y = ~trace_7, name = 'S_', type = 'scatter', mode = 'lines', color=colors[4])
fig2 <- fig2 %>% plotly::layout(title = name)
fig <- plotly::subplot(fig1, fig2)
}
return(fig)
}
#----Operations----
# Generate distribution only up to 3rd quartile
if(is.null(IT <- covid19::generate(distr_IT, par_IT))) stop('ERROR in IT generation : ', ERR_generation)
if(is.null(SRT <- covid19::generate(distr_SRT, par_SRT))) stop('ERROR in SRT generation : ', ERR_generation)
if(is.null(IBST <- covid19::generate(distr_IBST, par_IBST))) stop('ERROR in IBST generation : ', ERR_generation)
# Calculate sigma = 1/E[IT]. Calculate gamma = 1/E[IBST+SRT]
sg_out<-calculate_sigma_gamma(IT, SRT, IBST); sigma<-sg_out$sigma; gamma<-sg_out$gamma
# Extract S, E, I, R from P, R
U<-refine_data(P, R, IT=IT, SRT=SRT, IBST=IBST, end=end, normalise=normalise); S<-U$S; E<-U$E; I<-U$I; R<-U$R
# Initial conditions
U0 <- as.numeric(U[1,])
# ALL GIVEN
# elongate R0_stages if feasible (last element<length(S))
# note that NOW R0_msp and R0_stages have the same length
if(!missing(R0_msp)){
if(length(R0_stages) > 0)
if(R0_stages[length(R0_stages)] >= length(S))
stop(sprintf('Each element of R0_stages has to be strictly < %i = length(S)', length(S)))
R0_stages <- c(R0_stages, length(S))
if(length(R0_msp)==length(R0_stages))
M <- length(R0_msp)
else
stop('Error : length(R0_msp)!=length(R0_stages)-1')
# add future stage (from Length(S) to future+Length(S))
if(future>0){
# add one more stage to Rt, from R0_stages[M] to R0_stages[M]+future
R0_msp[M+1] <- R0_msp[M]
used_time <- c(R0_stages, (future+R0_stages[M]))
}
else
used_time <- R0_stages
sol <- solve_ms_SEIR(U0, gamma, sigma, R0_msp, used_time, time_step)
out <- c(U, sol)
}
# Rt
else if(fit_Rt){
if(length(R0_stages) > 0)
if(R0_stages[length(R0_stages)] >= length(S))
stop(sprintf('Each element of R0_stages has to be strictly < %i = length(S)', length(S)))
R0_stages <- c(R0_stages, length(S))
if(future>0)
used_time <- c(R0_stages, (future+R0_stages[M]))
else
used_time <- R0_stages
sol <- list()
par_fixed <- list('gamma'=gamma, 'sigma'=sigma)
sol_Rt <- ms_fit_R0(U0, U, par_fixed, used_time, time_step)
beta <- sol_Rt$beta
Rt <- beta/gamma
sol <- sol_Rt$sol
out <- c(U, sol)
out$Rt <- Rt
}
# R0
else {
R0_out <- estimate_R0(sigma, gamma, I, R0_exp_est_start, R0_exp_est_end); R0<-R0_out$R0
beta <- R0*gamma
eval_time <- seq(0, (future+length(U$I)-1), by = time_step)
parameters <- c(beta=beta, sigma=sigma, gamma=gamma)
sol <- solve_SEIR(U0, eval_time, parameters)
# Returns SEIR, S_E_I_R_, time, R0, start (R0_time_start), end (R0_time_end), mean sq dist (mean_fitting)
out <- c(U, sol, R0_out)
}
# Plot
if(plot_data)
name <- 'SEIR datapoints and solution'
else
name <- 'SEIR solution'
# fig <- plotty(U, sol, name, plot_data)
# out$plot <- fig
return(out)
}
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