Nothing
#########################################################
##
## sample from the posterior distribution
## of a probit regression model with multiple changepoints
##
## JHP 07/01/2007
## JHP 03/03/2009
#########################################################
#' Markov Chain Monte Carlo for a linear Gaussian Multiple Changepoint Model
#'
#' This function generates a sample from the posterior distribution of a linear
#' Gaussian model with multiple changepoints. The function uses the Markov
#' chain Monte Carlo method of Chib (1998). The user supplies data and priors,
#' and a sample from the posterior distribution is returned as an mcmc object,
#' which can be subsequently analyzed with functions provided in the coda
#' package.
#'
#' \code{MCMCprobitChange} simulates from the posterior distribution of a
#' probit regression model with multiple parameter breaks. The simulation is
#' based on Chib (1998) and Park (2011).
#'
#' The model takes the following form:
#'
#' \deqn{\Pr(y_t = 1) = \Phi(x_i'\beta_m) \;\; m = 1, \ldots, M}
#'
#' Where \eqn{M} is the number of states, and \eqn{\beta_m}
#' is a parameter when a state is \eqn{m} at \eqn{t}.
#'
#' We assume Gaussian distribution for prior of \eqn{\beta}:
#'
#' \deqn{\beta_m \sim \mathcal{N}(b_0,B_0^{-1}),\;\; m = 1, \ldots, M}
#'
#' And:
#'
#' \deqn{p_{mm} \sim \mathcal{B}eta(a, b),\;\; m = 1, \ldots, M}
#'
#' Where \eqn{M} is the number of states.
#'
#' @param formula Model formula.
#'
#' @param data Data frame.
#'
#' @param m The number of changepoints.
#'
#' @param burnin The number of burn-in iterations for the sampler.
#'
#' @param mcmc The number of MCMC iterations after burnin.
#'
#' @param thin The thinning interval used in the simulation. The number of
#' MCMC iterations must be divisible by this value.
#'
#' @param verbose A switch which determines whether or not the progress of the
#' sampler is printed to the screen. If \code{verbose} is greater than 0 the
#' iteration number, the \eqn{\beta} vector, and the error variance are
#' printed to the screen every \code{verbose}th iteration.
#'
#' @param seed The seed for the random number generator. If NA, the Mersenne
#' Twister generator is used with default seed 12345; if an integer is passed
#' it is used to seed the Mersenne twister. The user can also pass a list of
#' length two to use the L'Ecuyer random number generator, which is suitable
#' for parallel computation. The first element of the list is the L'Ecuyer
#' seed, which is a vector of length six or NA (if NA a default seed of
#' \code{rep(12345,6)} is used). The second element of list is a positive
#' substream number. See the MCMCpack specification for more details.
#'
#' @param beta.start The starting values for the \eqn{\beta} vector.
#' This can either be a scalar or a column vector with dimension equal to the
#' number of betas. The default value of of NA will use the MLE estimate of
#' \eqn{\beta} as the starting value. If this is a scalar, that value
#' will serve as the starting value mean for all of the betas.
#'
#' @param P.start The starting values for the transition matrix. A user should
#' provide a square matrix with dimension equal to the number of states. By
#' default, draws from the \code{Beta(0.9, 0.1)} are used to construct a proper
#' transition matrix for each raw except the last raw.
#'
#' @param b0 The prior mean of \eqn{\beta}. This can either be a scalar
#' or a column vector with dimension equal to the number of betas. If this
#' takes a scalar value, then that value will serve as the prior mean for all
#' of the betas.
#'
#' @param B0 The prior precision of \eqn{\beta}. This can either be a
#' scalar or a square matrix with dimensions equal to the number of betas. If
#' this takes a scalar value, then that value times an identity matrix serves
#' as the prior precision of beta. Default value of 0 is equivalent to an
#' improper uniform prior for beta.
#'
#' @param a \eqn{a} is the shape1 beta prior for transition probabilities.
#' By default, the expected duration is computed and corresponding a and b
#' values are assigned. The expected duration is the sample period divided by
#' the number of states.
#'
#' @param b \eqn{b} is the shape2 beta prior for transition probabilities.
#' By default, the expected duration is computed and corresponding a and b
#' values are assigned. The expected duration is the sample period divided by
#' the number of states.
#'
#' @param marginal.likelihood How should the marginal likelihood be calculated?
#' Options are: \code{none} in which case the marginal likelihood will not be
#' calculated, and \code{Chib95} in which case the method of Chib (1995) is
#' used.
#'
#' @param ... further arguments to be passed
#'
#' @return An mcmc object that contains the posterior sample. This object can
#' be summarized by functions provided by the coda package. The object
#' contains an attribute \code{prob.state} storage matrix that contains the
#' probability of \eqn{state_i} for each period, the log-likelihood of
#' the model (\code{loglike}), and the log-marginal likelihood of the model
#' (\code{logmarglike}).
#'
#' @export
#'
#' @seealso \code{\link{plotState}}, \code{\link{plotChangepoint}}
#'
#' @references Jong Hee Park. 2011. ``Changepoint Analysis of Binary and
#' Ordinal Probit Models: An Application to Bank Rate Policy Under the Interwar
#' Gold Standard." \emph{Political Analysis}. 19: 188-204. <doi:10.1093/pan/mpr007>
#'
#' Andrew D. Martin, Kevin M. Quinn, and Jong Hee Park. 2011. ``MCMCpack:
#' Markov Chain Monte Carlo in R.'', \emph{Journal of Statistical Software}.
#' 42(9): 1-21. \doi{10.18637/jss.v042.i09}.
#'
#' Siddhartha Chib. 1998. ``Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point
#' models.'' \emph{Journal of Econometrics}. 86: 221-241.
#'
#' Albert, J. H. and S. Chib. 1993. ``Bayesian Analysis of Binary and
#' Polychotomous Response Data.'' \emph{J. Amer. Statist. Assoc.} 88, 669-679
#'
#' @keywords models
#'
#' @examples
#'
#' \dontrun{
#' set.seed(1973)
#' x1 <- rnorm(300, 0, 1)
#' true.beta <- c(-.5, .2, 1)
#' true.alpha <- c(.1, -1., .2)
#' X <- cbind(1, x1)
#'
#' ## set two true breaks at 100 and 200
#' true.phi1 <- pnorm(true.alpha[1] + x1[1:100]*true.beta[1])
#' true.phi2 <- pnorm(true.alpha[2] + x1[101:200]*true.beta[2])
#' true.phi3 <- pnorm(true.alpha[3] + x1[201:300]*true.beta[3])
#'
#' ## generate y
#' y1 <- rbinom(100, 1, true.phi1)
#' y2 <- rbinom(100, 1, true.phi2)
#' y3 <- rbinom(100, 1, true.phi3)
#' Y <- as.ts(c(y1, y2, y3))
#'
#' ## fit multiple models with a varying number of breaks
#' out0 <- MCMCprobitChange(formula=Y~X-1, data=parent.frame(), m=0,
#' mcmc=1000, burnin=1000, thin=1, verbose=1000,
#' b0 = 0, B0 = 0.1, a = 1, b = 1, marginal.likelihood = c("Chib95"))
#' out1 <- MCMCprobitChange(formula=Y~X-1, data=parent.frame(), m=1,
#' mcmc=1000, burnin=1000, thin=1, verbose=1000,
#' b0 = 0, B0 = 0.1, a = 1, b = 1, marginal.likelihood = c("Chib95"))
#' out2 <- MCMCprobitChange(formula=Y~X-1, data=parent.frame(), m=2,
#' mcmc=1000, burnin=1000, thin=1, verbose=1000,
#' b0 = 0, B0 = 0.1, a = 1, b = 1, marginal.likelihood = c("Chib95"))
#' out3 <- MCMCprobitChange(formula=Y~X-1, data=parent.frame(), m=3,
#' mcmc=1000, burnin=1000, thin=1, verbose=1000,
#' b0 = 0, B0 = 0.1, a = 1, b = 1, marginal.likelihood = c("Chib95"))
#'
#' ## find the most reasonable one
#' BayesFactor(out0, out1, out2, out3)
#'
#' ## draw plots using the "right" model
#' plotState(out2)
#' plotChangepoint(out2)
#' }
#'
"MCMCprobitChange"<-
function(formula, data=parent.frame(), m = 1,
burnin = 10000, mcmc = 10000, thin = 1, verbose = 0,
seed = NA, beta.start = NA, P.start = NA,
b0 = NULL, B0 = NULL, a = NULL, b = NULL,
marginal.likelihood = c("none", "Chib95"),
...){
## form response and model matrices
holder <- parse.formula(formula, data)
y <- holder[[1]]
X <- holder[[2]]
xnames <- holder[[3]]
k <- ncol(X)
n <- length(y)
ns <- m + 1
## check iteration parameters
check.mcmc.parameters(burnin, mcmc, thin)
totiter <- mcmc + burnin
cl <- match.call()
nstore <- mcmc/thin
## seeds
seeds <- form.seeds(seed)
lecuyer <- seeds[[1]]
seed.array <- seeds[[2]]
lecuyer.stream <- seeds[[3]]
if(!is.na(seed)) set.seed(seed)
## prior
mvn.prior <- form.mvn.prior(b0, B0, k)
b0 <- mvn.prior[[1]]
B0 <- mvn.prior[[2]]
chib <- 0
if (marginal.likelihood == "Chib95"){
chib <- 1
}
if (m == 0){
if (marginal.likelihood == "Chib95"){
output <- MCMCprobit(formula=Y~X-1, burnin = burnin, mcmc = mcmc,
thin = thin, verbose = verbose,
b0 = b0, B0 = B0,
marginal.likelihood = "Laplace")
cat("\n Chib95 method is not yet available for m = 0. Laplace method is used instead.")
}
else {
output <- MCMCprobit(formula=Y~X-1, burnin = burnin, mcmc = mcmc,
thin = thin, verbose = verbose,
b0 = b0, B0 = B0)
}
attr(output, "y") <- y
}
else{
A0 <- trans.mat.prior(m=m, n=n, a=a, b=b)
Pstart <- check.P(P.start, m, a=a, b=b)
betastart <- beta.change.start(beta.start, ns, k, formula, family=binomial, data)
## call C++ code to draw sample
posterior <- .C("cMCMCprobitChange",
betaout = as.double(rep(0.0, nstore*ns*k)),
Pout = as.double(rep(0.0, nstore*ns*ns)),
psout = as.double(rep(0.0, n*ns)),
sout = as.double(rep(0.0, nstore*n)),
Ydata = as.double(y),
Yrow = as.integer(nrow(y)),
Ycol = as.integer(ncol(y)),
Xdata = as.double(X),
Xrow = as.integer(nrow(X)),
Xcol = as.integer(ncol(X)),
m = as.integer(m),
burnin = as.integer(burnin),
mcmc = as.integer(mcmc),
thin = as.integer(thin),
verbose = as.integer(verbose),
lecuyer=as.integer(lecuyer),
seedarray=as.integer(seed.array),
lecuyerstream=as.integer(lecuyer.stream),
betastart = as.double(betastart),
Pstart = as.double(Pstart),
a = as.double(a),
b = as.double(b),
b0data = as.double(b0),
B0data = as.double(B0),
A0data = as.double(A0),
logmarglikeholder = as.double(0.0),
loglikeholder = as.double(0.0),
chib = as.integer(chib))
## get marginal likelihood if Chib95
if (chib==1){
logmarglike <- posterior$logmarglikeholder
loglike <- posterior$loglikeholder
}
else{
logmarglike <- loglike <- 0
}
## pull together matrix and build MCMC object to return
beta.holder <- matrix(posterior$betaout, nstore, ns*k)
P.holder <- matrix(posterior$Pout, nstore, )
s.holder <- matrix(posterior$sout, nstore, )
ps.holder <- matrix(posterior$psout, n, )
output <- mcmc(data=beta.holder, start=burnin+1, end=burnin + mcmc, thin=thin)
varnames(output) <- sapply(c(1:ns),
function(i){
paste(c(xnames), "_regime", i, sep = "")
})
attr(output, "title") <- "MCMCprobitChange Posterior Sample"
attr(output, "formula") <- formula
attr(output, "y") <- y
attr(output, "X") <- X
attr(output, "m") <- m
attr(output, "call") <- cl
attr(output, "logmarglike") <- logmarglike
attr(output, "loglike") <- loglike
attr(output, "prob.state") <- ps.holder/nstore
attr(output, "s.store") <- s.holder
}
return(output)
}## end of MCMC function
Any scripts or data that you put into this service are public.
Add the following code to your website.
For more information on customizing the embed code, read Embedding Snippets.