hailfinder | R Documentation |
Hailfinder is a Bayesian network designed to forecast severe summer hail in northeastern Colorado.
data(hailfinder)
The hailfinder
data set contains the following 56 variables:
N07muVerMo
(10.7mu vertical motion): a four-level factor
with levels StrongUp
, WeakUp
, Neutral
and Down
.
SubjVertMo
(subjective judgment of vertical motion): a
four-level factor with levels StrongUp
, WeakUp
,
Neutral
and Down
.
QGVertMotion
(quasigeostrophic vertical motion): a
four-level factor with levels StrongUp
, WeakUp
,
Neutral
and Down
.
CombVerMo
(combined vertical motion): a four-level
factor with levels StrongUp
, WeakUp
, Neutral
and
Down
.
AreaMesoALS
(area of meso-alpha): a four-level factor
with levels StrongUp
, WeakUp
, Neutral
and
Down
.
SatContMoist
(satellite contribution to moisture): a
four-level factor with levels VeryWet
, Wet
, Neutral
and Dry
.
RaoContMoist
(reading at the forecast center for
moisture): a four-level factor with levels VeryWet
, Wet
,
Neutral
and Dry
.
CombMoisture
(combined moisture): a four-level factor
with levels VeryWet
, Wet
, Neutral
and Dry
.
AreaMoDryAir
(area of moisture and adry air): a
four-level factor with levels VeryWet
, Wet
, Neutral
and Dry
.
VISCloudCov
(visible cloud cover): a three-level factor
with levels Cloudy
, PC
and Clear
.
IRCloudCover
(infrared cloud cover): a three-level
factor with levels Cloudy
, PC
and Clear
.
CombClouds
(combined cloud cover): a three-level factor
with levels Cloudy
, PC
and Clear
.
CldShadeOth
(cloud shading, other): a three-level factor
with levels Cloudy
, PC
and Clear
.
AMInstabMt
(AM instability in the mountains): a
three-level factor with levels None
, Weak
and Strong
.
InsInMt
(instability in the mountains): a three-level
factor with levels None
, Weak
and Strong
.
WndHodograph
(wind hodograph): a four-level factor with
levels DCVZFavor
, StrongWest
, Westerly
and
Other
.
OutflowFrMt
(outflow from mountains): a three-level
factor with levels None
, Weak
and Strong
.
MorningBound
(morning boundaries): a three-level factor
with levels None
, Weak
and Strong
.
Boundaries
(boundaries): a three-level factor with
levels None
, Weak
and Strong
.
CldShadeConv
(cloud shading, convection): a three-level
factor with levels None
, Some
and Marked
.
CompPlFcst
(composite plains forecast): a three-level
factor with levels IncCapDecIns
, LittleChange
and
DecCapIncIns
.
CapChange
(capping change): a three-level factor with
levels Decreasing
, LittleChange
and Increasing
.
LoLevMoistAd
(low-level moisture advection): a
four-level factor with levels StrongPos
, WeakPos
,
Neutral
and Negative
.
InsChange
(instability change): three-level factor with
levels Decreasing
, LittleChange
and Increasing
.
MountainFcst
(mountains (region 1) forecast): a
three-level factor with levels XNIL
, SIG
and SVR
.
Date
(date): a six-level factor with levels
May15_Jun14
, Jun15_Jul1
, Jul2_Jul15
,
Jul16_Aug10
, Aug11_Aug20
and Aug20_Sep15
.
Scenario
(scenario): an eleven-level factor with levels
A
, B
, C
, D
, E
, F
, G
,
H
, I
, J
and K
.
ScenRelAMCIN
(scenario relevant to AM convective
inhibition): a two-level factor with levels AB
and CThruK
.
MorningCIN
(morning convective inhibition): a four-level
factor with levels None
, PartInhibit
, Stifling
and
TotalInhibit
.
AMCINInScen
(AM convective inhibition in scenario): a
three-level factor with levels LessThanAve
, Average
and
MoreThanAve
.
CapInScen
(capping withing scenario): a three-level
factor with levels LessThanAve
, Average
and
MoreThanAve
.
ScenRelAMIns
(scenario relevant to AM instability): a
six-level factor with levels ABI
, CDEJ
, F
, G
,
H
and K
.
LIfr12ZDENSd
(LI from 12Z DEN sounding): a four-level
factor with levels LIGt0
, N1GtLIGt_4
, N5GtLIGt_8
and LILt_8
.
AMDewptCalPl
(AM dewpoint calculations, plains): a
three-level factor with levels Instability
, Neutral
and
Stability
.
AMInsWliScen
(AM instability within scenario): a
three-level factor with levels LessUnstable
, Average
and
MoreUnstable
.
InsSclInScen
(instability scaling within scenario): a
three-level factor with levels LessUnstable
, Average
and
MoreUnstable
.
ScenRel34
(scenario relevant to regions 2/3/4): a
five-level factor with levels ACEFK
, B
, D
, GJ
and HI
.
LatestCIN
(latest convective inhibition): a four-level
factor with levels None
, PartInhibit
, Stifling
and
TotalInhibit
.
LLIW
(LLIW severe weather index): a four-level factor
with levels Unfavorable
, Weak
, Moderate
and
Strong
.
CurPropConv
(current propensity to convection): a
four-level factor with levels None
, Slight
, Moderate
and Strong
.
ScnRelPlFcst
(scenario relevant to plains forecast): an
eleven-level factor with levels A
, B
, C
, D
,
E
, F
, G
, H
, I
, J
and K
.
PlainsFcst
(plains forecast): a three-level factor with
levels XNIL
, SIG
and SVR
.
N34StarFcst
(regions 2/3/4 forecast): a three-level
factor with levels XNIL
, SIG
and SVR
.
R5Fcst
(region 5 forecast): a three-level factor with
levels XNIL
, SIG
and SVR
.
Dewpoints
(dewpoints): a seven-level factor with levels
LowEverywhere
, LowAtStation
, LowSHighN
,
LowNHighS
, LowMtsHighPl
, HighEverywher
, Other
.
LowLLapse
(low-level lapse rate): a four-level factor
with levels CloseToDryAd
, Steep
, ModerateOrLe
and
Stable
.
MeanRH
(mean relative humidity): a three-level factor
with levels VeryMoist
, Average
and Dry
.
MidLLapse
(mid-level lapse rate): a three-level factor
with levels CloseToDryAd
, Steep
and ModerateOrLe
.
MvmtFeatures
(movement of features): a four-level factor
with levels StrongFront
, MarkedUpper
, OtherRapid
and
NoMajor
.
RHRatio
(realtive humidity ratio): a three-level factor
with levels MoistMDryL
, DryMMoistL
and other
.
SfcWndShfDis
(surface wind shifts and discontinuities):
a seven-level factor with levels DenvCyclone
, E_W_N
,
E_W_S
, MovigFtorOt
, DryLine
, None
and
Other
.
SynForcng
(synoptic forcing): a five-level factor with
levels SigNegative
, NegToPos
, SigPositive
,
PosToNeg
and LittleChange
.
TempDis
(temperature discontinuities): a four-level
factor with levels QStationary
, Moving
, None
,
Other
.
WindAloft
(wind aloft): a four-level factor with levels
LV
, SWQuad
, NWQuad
, AllElse
.
WindFieldMt
(wind fields, mountains): a two-level
factor with levels Westerly
and LVorOther
.
WindFieldPln
(wind fields, plains): a six-level factor
with levels LV
, DenvCyclone
, LongAnticyc
,
E_NE
, SEquad
and WidespdDnsl
.
The complete BN can be downloaded from https://www.bnlearn.com/bnrepository/.
Abramson B, Brown J, Edwards W, Murphy A, Winkler RL (1996). "Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather". International Journal of Forecasting, 12(1):57–71.
# load the data.
data(hailfinder)
# create and plot the network structure.
modelstring = paste0("[N07muVerMo][SubjVertMo][QGVertMotion][SatContMoist][RaoContMoist]",
"[VISCloudCov][IRCloudCover][AMInstabMt][WndHodograph][MorningBound][LoLevMoistAd][Date]",
"[MorningCIN][LIfr12ZDENSd][AMDewptCalPl][LatestCIN][LLIW]",
"[CombVerMo|N07muVerMo:SubjVertMo:QGVertMotion][CombMoisture|SatContMoist:RaoContMoist]",
"[CombClouds|VISCloudCov:IRCloudCover][Scenario|Date][CurPropConv|LatestCIN:LLIW]",
"[AreaMesoALS|CombVerMo][ScenRelAMCIN|Scenario][ScenRelAMIns|Scenario][ScenRel34|Scenario]",
"[ScnRelPlFcst|Scenario][Dewpoints|Scenario][LowLLapse|Scenario][MeanRH|Scenario]",
"[MidLLapse|Scenario][MvmtFeatures|Scenario][RHRatio|Scenario][SfcWndShfDis|Scenario]",
"[SynForcng|Scenario][TempDis|Scenario][WindAloft|Scenario][WindFieldMt|Scenario]",
"[WindFieldPln|Scenario][AreaMoDryAir|AreaMesoALS:CombMoisture]",
"[AMCINInScen|ScenRelAMCIN:MorningCIN][AMInsWliScen|ScenRelAMIns:LIfr12ZDENSd:AMDewptCalPl]",
"[CldShadeOth|AreaMesoALS:AreaMoDryAir:CombClouds][InsInMt|CldShadeOth:AMInstabMt]",
"[OutflowFrMt|InsInMt:WndHodograph][CldShadeConv|InsInMt:WndHodograph][MountainFcst|InsInMt]",
"[Boundaries|WndHodograph:OutflowFrMt:MorningBound][N34StarFcst|ScenRel34:PlainsFcst]",
"[CompPlFcst|AreaMesoALS:CldShadeOth:Boundaries:CldShadeConv][CapChange|CompPlFcst]",
"[InsChange|CompPlFcst:LoLevMoistAd][CapInScen|CapChange:AMCINInScen]",
"[InsSclInScen|InsChange:AMInsWliScen][R5Fcst|MountainFcst:N34StarFcst]",
"[PlainsFcst|CapInScen:InsSclInScen:CurPropConv:ScnRelPlFcst]")
dag = model2network(modelstring)
## Not run: graphviz.plot(dag, shape = "ellipse")
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