Nothing
crps.fitMOSgev0 <-
function(fit, ensembleData, dates=NULL, ...)
{
if(!is.null(dates)) warning("dates ignored")
gini.md <- function(x,na.rm=FALSE) { ## Michael Scheuerer's code
if(na.rm & any(is.na(x))) x <- x[!is.na(x)]
n <-length(x)
return(4*sum((1:n)*sort(x,na.last=TRUE))/(n^2)-2*mean(x)*(n+1)/n)
}
crps.GEVneq0 <- function(MEAN,SCALE,SHAPE, obs) { ## Michael Scheuerer's code
LOC <- MEAN - SCALE*(gamma(1-SHAPE)-1)/SHAPE
SCdSH <- SCALE/SHAPE
Gam1mSH <- gamma(1-SHAPE)
prob0 <- pgev(0, loc=LOC, scale=SCALE, shape=SHAPE)
probY <- pgev(obs, loc=LOC, scale=SCALE, shape=SHAPE)
T1 <- (obs-LOC)*(2*probY-1) + LOC*prob0^2
T2 <- SCdSH * ( 1-prob0^2 - 2^SHAPE*Gam1mSH*pgamma(-2*log(prob0),1-SHAPE) )
T3 <- -2*SCdSH * ( 1-probY - Gam1mSH*pgamma(-log(probY),1-SHAPE) )
return( mean(T1+T2+T3) )
}
eps <- 1e-5
M <- matchEnsembleMembers(fit,ensembleData)
nForecasts <- ensembleSize(ensembleData)
if (!all(M == 1:nForecasts)) ensembleData <- ensembleData[,M]
# remove instances missing all forecasts or obs
M <- apply(ensembleForecasts(ensembleData), 1, function(z) all(is.na(z)))
M <- M | is.na(ensembleVerifObs(ensembleData))
ensembleData <- ensembleData[!M,]
if (is.null(obs <- ensembleVerifObs(ensembleData)))
stop("verification observations required")
nObs <- ensembleNobs(ensembleData)
nForecasts <- ensembleSize(ensembleData)
CRPS <- rep(NA, nObs)
obs <- ensembleVerifObs(ensembleData)
ensembleData <- ensembleForecasts(ensembleData)
crpsEns1 <- apply(abs(sweep(ensembleData, MARGIN=1,FUN ="-",STATS=obs))
,1,mean,na.rm=TRUE)
if (nrow(ensembleData) > 1) {
crpsEns2 <- apply(apply(ensembleData, 2, function(z,Z)
apply(abs(sweep(Z, MARGIN = 1, FUN = "-", STATS = z)),1,sum,na.rm=TRUE),
Z = ensembleData),1,sum, na.rm = TRUE)
}
else {
crpsEns2 <- sum(sapply(as.vector(ensembleData),
function(z,Z) sum( Z-z, na.rm = TRUE),
Z = as.vector(ensembleData)), na.rm = TRUE)
}
crpsEns <- crpsEns1 - crpsEns2/(2*(nForecasts*nForecasts))
B <- fit$B
if (!all(Bmiss <- is.na(B))) {
A <- fit$a
C <- fit$c
D <- fit$d
Q <- fit$q
S <- fit$s
for (i in 1:nObs) {
f <- ensembleData[i,]
MEAN <- c(A,B)%*%c(1,f)+S*mean(f==0, na.rm = TRUE) #mean of GEV
SCALE <- C + D*gini.md(f,na.rm = TRUE) #scale of GEV
if( abs(Q) < eps ) {
crps.eps.m <- crps.GEVneq0 (MEAN,SCALE,-eps, obs[i])
crps.eps.p <- crps.GEVneq0 (MEAN,SCALE,eps, obs[i])
w.m <- (eps-Q)/(2*eps)
w.p <- (eps+Q)/(2*eps)
CRPS[i] <- w.m*crps.eps.m + w.p*crps.eps.p
} else {
CRPS[i] <- crps.GEVneq0 (MEAN,SCALE,Q, obs[i])
}
}
}
cbind(ensemble = crpsEns, EMOS = CRPS)
}
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