#Let's try to put together an example figure of Bayesian inference with the
#conditional density prior. So we have to actually do it. Basing this code off
#of MPRAMCMC.RMd in the MPRA rstudio project
library(dplyr)
library(mcmc) #Let's try to actually use this package this time instead of reinventing the wheel
library(parallel)
library(ggplot2)
filter = dplyr::filter
par(xpd = FALSE)
load("~/Qual/outputs/bandwidthOptimization9_27_16.RData")
load("~/MPRA/data/varInfo.RData")
load("~/MPRA/data/gatheredMPRA.RData")
h = which.max(resmat) %>% arrayInd(dim(resmat))
DSD.dens = density(varInfo$DeepSeaDnaase)
# #First let's look at the plot with the optimized bandwidths
# #constr = "11 8902218 1/3" #We're going to perform inference on this one
# #print(constr)
# p = ggplot(varInfo %>% filter(construct != constr), aes(DeepSeaDnaase, VariantShift)) +
# geom_point()
#
# cvals = seq(range(varInfo$DeepSeaDnaase)[1], range(varInfo$DeepSeaDnaase)[2], length.out = 10) #values to condition on -1:8
# DSD.dens = density(varInfo$DeepSeaDnaase)
# inv.sqrt.dens = approx(DSD.dens$x, 1/((DSD.dens$y)^(1/3)), xout = cvals)$y
#
# for(i in 1:length(cvals)){
# w = dnorm(varInfo$DeepSeaDnaase, mean = cvals[i], sd = h2.grid[h[2]]*inv.sqrt.dens[i]) #incorporating the condition location = adaptive
# dens = density(varInfo$VariantShift, weights = w/sum(w), kernel = 'gaussian', bw = h1.grid[h[1]])
# if(i == 1){
# cdens = tibble(x = dens$x, y = dens$y, posval = rep(cvals[i], length(dens$x)))
# } else{
# cdens = rbind(cdens, tibble(x = dens$x, y = dens$y, posval = rep(cvals[i], length(dens$x))))
# }
# }
#
# p = p + geom_path(data = cdens, aes(x = .75*sd(varInfo$DeepSeaDnaase)*y + posval, y = x, group = posval), color = 'firebrick1')
# # wex = tibble(x = seq(range(DeepSeaDnaase)[1], range(DeepSeaDnaase)[2], length.out = 200),
# # y = .1*dnorm(x, mean = mean(range(DeepSeaDnaase)), sd = diff(range(DeepSeaDnaase))/ 30)) # weight example
# #p = p + geom_line(data = wex, aes(x,y-3))
# p + ylab('Transcriptional Shift') + xlab('DeepSea DNaseI Hypersensitivity') +
# geom_point(data = varInfo %>% filter(construct == constr), col = 'green')
#
# #Let's see how the t.test does
# observations = MPRA.qnactivity %>% filter(construct == constr)
# t.test(qnact~type, data = observations) # p = 0.000777 -- It doesn't get below the significance threshold used by Ulirsch (9e-5)
#
# tmpVarInfo = varInfo %>% filter(construct != constr)
# testdat = varInfo %>% filter(construct == constr)
# mainparts = strsplit(constr, ' ') %>% unlist
# mainstr = paste0('chr', mainparts[1], ' position ', mainparts[2], ' ', testdat$ref, ' --> ', testdat$alt)
# stripchart(qnact ~ type, data = observations, vertical = TRUE, pch =16, method = 'jitter', main = mainstr)
HPDinterval <- function(obj, prob = 0.95, ...) UseMethod("HPDinterval")
HPDinterval.mcmc <- function(obj, prob = 0.95, ...)
{
#Adapted from the HPDinterval() function in the coda package
obj <- obj$batch %>% as.matrix()
vals <- apply(obj, 2, sort)
if (!is.matrix(vals)) stop("obj must have nsamp > 1")
nsamp <- nrow(vals)
npar <- ncol(vals)
gap <- max(1, min(nsamp - 1, round(nsamp * prob)))
init <- 1:(nsamp - gap)
inds <- apply(vals[init + gap, ,drop=FALSE] - vals[init, ,drop=FALSE],
2, which.min)
ans <- cbind(vals[cbind(inds, 1:npar)],
vals[cbind(inds + gap, 1:npar)])
dimnames(ans) <- list(colnames(obj), c("lower", "upper"))
attr(ans, "Probability") <- gap/nsamp
ans
}
postfun <- function(TSsig, priorfun, y, type){
#log-Posterior function
#TSsig = vector of length = 2. First is the proposed TS and second is the sigma value
#priorfun - after doing the conditional density estimation, use approxfun on the density to get this
#y - vector of outcomes (quantile normalized activity levels)
#type - factor with levels c('Ref', 'Mut'), corresponding to the type values of y
#sig - standard deviation of activity after acounting for type
#mult - multiplier to make exp(dEigen) * exp(dGkmer) be a probability distribution
#sig = sd(y[type == 'Ref'])
TS = TSsig[1]
sig = TSsig[2]
shiftvec = rep(TS, length(y))
shiftvec[type == 'Ref'] = rep(0, sum(type == 'Ref'))
center = mean(y[type == 'Ref']) #TODO: do this in an unbiased way
llik = length(y)*log(sqrt(1/(2*pi*sig^2))) + sum(-(y - shiftvec - center)^2/(2*sig^2))
logPrior = log(priorfun(TS))
return(llik + logPrior)
}
#Evaluate the likelihood
likefun <- function(TS, y, type, sig = 2.5, ordering){
sig = sd(y[type == 'Ref'])
shiftvec = rep(TS, length(y))
shiftvec[type == 'Ref'] = rep(0, sum(type == 'Ref'))
center = mean(y[type == 'Ref']) #TODO: do this in an unbiased way
llik = length(y)*log(sqrt(1/(2*pi*sig^2))) + sum(-(y - shiftvec - center)^2/(2*sig^2))
return(llik)
}
analyze <- function(constr, dirstr = 'varOutputs/plots/'){ #, run = NULL, lik.run = NULL
#Perform MCMC to estimate posterior transcriptional shift based on empirical Bayesian prior
#Also output wilcox p-value for comparison
tmpVarInfo = varInfo %>% filter(construct != constr)
testdat = varInfo %>% filter(construct == constr)
mainparts = strsplit(constr, ' ') %>% unlist
mainstr = paste0('chr', mainparts[1], ' position ', mainparts[2], ' ', testdat$ref, ' --> ', testdat$alt)
#Let's see how the t.test does
observations = MPRA.qnactivity %>% filter(construct == constr)
#t.test(qnact~type, data = observations) # p = 0.000777 -- It doesn't get below the significance threshold used by Ulirsch (9e-5)
pwilcox = wilcox.test(observations %>% filter(type == 'Ref') %>% .$qnact,
observations %>% filter(type == 'Mut') %>% .$qnact)$p.value
#stripchart(qnact ~ type, data = observations, vertical = TRUE, pch =16, method = 'jitter', main = mainstr)
####### Doing the MCMC
inv.sqrt.dens = approx(DSD.dens$x, 1/((DSD.dens$y)^(1/3)), xout = testdat$DeepSeaDnaase)$y
w = dnorm(tmpVarInfo$DeepSeaDnaase, mean = testdat$DeepSeaDnaase, sd = h2.grid[h[2]]*inv.sqrt.dens) #incorporating the condition location = adaptive
prior.dens = density(tmpVarInfo$VariantShift, weights = w/sum(w), kernel = 'gaussian', bw = h1.grid[h[1]], from = -6, to = 6) #This is the optimized prior for the test construct!!!
# plot(prior.dens,
# main = paste0('Prior on ', mainstr))
pfun = approxfun(prior.dens$x, prior.dens$y)
qndat = MPRA.qnactivity %>% filter(construct == constr)
nburn = 5000
nrun = 10000
thin = 10
scaleval = .15*c(1,.5)
lik.strt = Sys.time()
lik.burn = metrop(likefun,
initial = 0,
nbatch = nburn,
scale = .8,
nspac = thin,
y = qndat$qnact,
type = qndat$type)
# print(paste0('Likelihood burn done in ', format(Sys.time() - lik.strt)))
lik.burntime = Sys.time() - lik.strt
lik.runstrt = Sys.time()
lik.run = metrop(lik.burn,
nbatch = nrun,
scale = .8,
nspac = thin,
y = qndat$qnact,
type = qndat$type)
lik.runTime = Sys.time() - lik.runstrt
lik.tot = Sys.time() - lik.strt
# print(paste0('Likelihood Run done in ', format(lik.runTime)))
# print(paste0('Likelihood Total time ', format(lik.tot)))
#Evaluate the posterior
strt = Sys.time()
burn = metrop(postfun,
initial = c(0,1.6),
nbatch = nburn,
scale = scaleval,
nspac = thin,
y = qndat$qnact,
type = qndat$type,
priorfun = pfun)
# print(paste0('Posterior Burn done in ', format(Sys.time() - strt)))
burntime = Sys.time() - strt
runstrt = Sys.time()
run = metrop(burn,
nbatch = nrun,
scale = scaleval,
nspac = thin,
y = qndat$qnact,
type = qndat$type,
priorfun = pfun)
runTime = Sys.time() - runstrt
tot = Sys.time() - strt
# print(paste0('Posterior Run done in ', format(runTime)))
# print(paste0('Posterior total time ', format(tot)))
hdi = HPDinterval(run)
ymx = max(prior.dens$y, density(lik.run$batch)$y, density(run$batch)$y)
png(filename = paste0('outputs/', dirstr, (constr %>% gsub(' ', '_', .) %>% gsub('/', '-', .)), '.png'),
width = 960,
height = 960)
plot(density(run$batch[,1]),
col = 'forestgreen',
lwd = 2,
xlim = c(-2,2),
ylim = c(0,ymx), main = mainstr,
xlab = 'Transcriptional Shift',
zero.line = FALSE,
lend = 'butt')
lines(density(lik.run$batch),
col = 'dodgerblue2',
lwd = 2,
lend = 'butt')
lines(prior.dens$x,
prior.dens$y,
lwd = 2,
col = 'firebrick2',
lend = 'butt')
lines(density(abs(run$batch[,2]))$x,
.1*density(abs(run$batch[,2]))$y,
col = 'chocolate1',
lwd = 2,
lend = 'butt')
lines(hdi[1,],
rep(-.05,2),
col = 'darkorchid2',
lwd = 4,
lend = 'butt')
legend('topright',
legend = c('Prior', 'Likelihood', 'Posterior', '95% HDI'),
fill = c('firebrick2', 'dodgerblue2', 'forestgreen', 'darkorchid2'),
cex = .85)
dev.off()
if(hdi[1] < 0 && hdi[2] > 0){
bayes.call = 'NONFUNCTIONAL'
} else{
bayes.call = 'FUNCTIONAL'
}
res = list(constr, testdat, run, prior.dens, lik.run, hdi, bayes.call, pwilcox)
names(res) = c('Construct', 'ConstructData','Posterior', 'Prior', 'Likelihood', 'HDI95', 'BayesianConclusion', 'Wilcox.pval')
return(res)
}
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