R/ca-jo.R

##
## Johansen Procedure
##
ca.jo <- function(x, type = c("eigen", "trace"), ecdet = c("none", "const", "trend"), K = 2, spec = c("longrun", "transitory"), season = NULL, dumvar = NULL)
{
  x <- as.matrix(x)
  colnames(x) <- make.names(colnames(x))
  type <- match.arg(type)
  ecdet <- match.arg(ecdet)
  spec <- match.arg(spec)
  K <- as.integer(K)
  if (K < 2) {
    stop("\nK must be at least K=2.\n")
  }
  P <- ncol(x)
  arrsel <- P
  N <- nrow(x)
  if (!is.null(season)) {
    s <- season - 1
  } else {
    s <- 0
  }
  if (N * P < P + s * P + K * P^2 + P * (P + 1)/2)
    stop("\nInsufficient degrees of freedom.\n")
  if (P > 11)
    warning("\nToo many variables, critical values cannot be computed.\n")
  ##
  ## Check of NA's in x
  ## (create index of NA entries)
  ##
  if (NA %in% x) {
    idx.NA <- 1:N
    ind <- as.logical(sapply(idx.NA, function(z) sum(is.na(x[z, ]) * 1)))
    ind2 <- ind * (1:N)
  }
  ##
  ## Setting seasonal dummies
  ## (if applicable)
  ##
  if (!(is.null(season))) {
    dum <- (diag(season) - 1/season)[, -season]
    dums <- dum
    while (nrow(dums) < N) {
      dums <- rbind(dums, dum)
    }
    dums <- dums[1:N, ]
    if (NA %in% x) {
      dums <- dums[-ind2, ]
    }
    colnames(dums) <- paste("sd", 1:ncol(dums), sep="")
  }
  ##
  ## Setting dummy variables
  ## (if applicable)
  ##
  if (!(is.null(dumvar))) {
    dumvar <- as.matrix(dumvar)
    colnames(dumvar) <- make.names(colnames(dumvar))
    if(is.null(colnames(dumvar))){
      dumcols <- ncol(dumvar)
      colnames(dumvar) <- paste("exo", 1:dumcols, sep = "")
      warning("\nNo column names in 'dumvar', using prefix 'exo' instead.\n")
    }
    if (!(nrow(dumvar) == nrow(x))) {
      stop("\nUnequal row length between dummy variables and x matrix.\n")
    }
    if (NA %in% x) {
      dumvar <- dumvar[-ind2, ]
    }
  }
  ##
  ## Setting trend 
  ## (if applicable)
  ##
  if(ecdet == "trend"){
    trend <- 1:nrow(x)
    if (NA %in% x) {
      trend <- trend[-ind2]
    }
  }
  x <- na.omit(x)
  N <- nrow(x)
  Z <- embed(diff(x), K)
  Z0 <- Z[, 1:P]
  ##
  ## Critival values of tests
  ##
  cv.none <- array(c(6.5, 12.91, 18.9, 24.78, 30.84, 36.25, 42.06, 48.43, 54.01, 59., 65.07, 8.18, 14.90, 21.07, 27.14, 33.32, 39.43, 44.91, 51.07, 57.00, 62.42, 68.27, 11.65, 19.19, 25.75, 32.14, 38.78, 44.59, 51.30, 57.07, 63.37, 68.61, 74.36, 6.50, 15.66, 28.71, 45.23, 66.49, 85.18, 118.99, 151.38, 186.54, 226.34, 269.53, 8.18, 17.95, 31.52, 48.28, 70.6, 90.39, 124.25, 157.11, 192.84, 232.49, 277.39, 11.65, 23.52, 37.22, 55.43, 78.87, 104.20, 136.06, 168.92, 204.79, 246.27, 292.65), c(11, 3, 2))
  cv.const <- array(c(7.52, 13.75, 19.77, 25.56, 31.66, 37.45, 43.25, 48.91, 54.35, 60.25, 66.02, 9.24, 15.67, 22.00, 28.14, 34.40, 40.30, 46.45, 52.00, 57.42, 63.57, 69.74, 12.97, 20.20, 26.81, 33.24, 39.79, 46.82, 51.91, 57.95, 63.71, 69.94, 76.63, 7.52, 17.85, 32.00, 49.65, 71.86, 97.18, 126.58, 159.48, 196.37, 236.54, 282.45, 9.24, 19.96, 34.91, 53.12, 76.07, 102.14, 131.70, 165.58, 202.92, 244.15, 291.40, 12.97, 24.60, 41.07, 60.16, 84.45, 111.01, 143.09, 177.20, 215.74, 257.68, 307.64), c(11, 3, 2))
  cv.trend <- array(c(10.49, 16.85, 23.11, 29.12, 34.75, 40.91, 46.32, 52.16, 57.87, 63.18, 69.26, 12.25, 18.96, 25.54, 31.46, 37.52, 43.97, 49.42, 55.50, 61.29, 66.23, 72.72, 16.26, 23.65, 30.34, 36.65, 42.36, 49.51, 54.71, 62.46, 67.88, 73.73, 79.23, 10.49, 22.76, 39.06, 59.14, 83.20, 110.42, 141.01, 176.67, 215.17, 256.72, 303.13, 12.25, 25.32, 42.44, 62.99, 87.31, 114.90, 146.76, 182.82, 222.21, 263.42, 310.81, 16.26, 30.45, 48.45, 70.05, 96.58, 124.75, 158.49, 196.08, 234.41, 279.07, 327.45), c(11, 3, 2))
  if (ecdet == "none") {
    cvals <- cv.none
  } else if (ecdet == "const") {
    cvals <- cv.const
  } else if (ecdet == "trend") {
    cvals <- cv.trend
  }
  ##
  ## Setting of relevant matrices
  ##
  if (ecdet == "const") {
    if (spec == "longrun") {
      ZK <- cbind(x[-c((N - K + 1):N), ], 1)
      Lnotation <- K
    } else if (spec == "transitory") {
      ZK <- cbind(x[-N, ], 1)[K:(N - 1), ]
      Lnotation <- 1
    }
    colnames(ZK) <- c(paste(colnames(x), ".l", Lnotation, sep=""), "constant")
    Z1 <- Z[, -c(1:P)]
    temp1 <- NULL
    for(i in 1:(K-1)){
      temp <- paste(colnames(x), ".dl", i, sep="")
      temp1 <- c(temp1, temp)
    }
    colnames(Z1) <- temp1
    P <- P + 1
    idx <- 0:(P - 2)
    model <- "without linear trend and constant in cointegration"
  } else if(ecdet == "none"){
    if (spec == "longrun") {
      ZK <- x[-c((N - K + 1):N), ]
      Lnotation <- K
    }
    else if (spec == "transitory") {
      ZK <- x[-N, ][K:(N - 1), ]
      Lnotation <- 1
    }
    colnames(ZK) <- paste(colnames(x), ".l", Lnotation, sep="")
    Z1 <- Z[, -c(1:P)]
    Z1 <- cbind(1, Z1)
    temp1 <- NULL
    for(i in 1:(K-1)){
      temp <- paste(colnames(x), ".dl", i, sep="")
      temp1 <- c(temp1, temp)
    }
    temp1 <- c("constant", temp1)
    colnames(Z1) <- temp1
    idx <- 0:(P - 1)
    model <- "with linear trend"
  } else if(ecdet == "trend"){
    if(spec == "longrun") {
      ZK <- cbind(x[-c((N - K + 1):N), ], trend[-c((N - K + 1):N)])
      Lnotation <- K
    } else if (spec == "transitory") {
      ZK <- cbind(x[-N, ], trend[-N])[K:(N - 1), ]
      Lnotation <- 1
    }
    colnames(ZK) <- c(paste(colnames(x), ".l", Lnotation, sep=""), paste("trend.l", Lnotation, sep = ""))
    Z1 <- Z[, -c(1:P)]
    Z1 <- cbind(1, Z1)
    temp1 <- NULL
    for(i in 1:(K-1)){
      temp <- paste(colnames(x), ".dl", i, sep="")
      temp1 <- c(temp1, temp)
    }
    temp1 <- c("constant", temp1)
    colnames(Z1) <- temp1
    P <- P + 1
    idx <- 0:(P - 2)
    model <- "with linear trend in cointegration"
  }
  N <- nrow(Z0)
  if (!(is.null(season))) {
    if(ecdet == "const") {
      Z1 <- cbind(dums[-(1:K), ], Z1)
    } else {
      Z1 <- cbind(Z1[, 1], dums[-(1:K), ], Z1[, -1])
      colnames(Z1) <- c("constant", colnames(Z1)[-1])
    }
  }
  if (!(is.null(dumvar))) {
    tmp <- colnames(Z1)
    if(ecdet == "const"){
      Z1 <- cbind(dumvar[-(1:K), ], Z1)
      colnames(Z1) <- c(colnames(dumvar), tmp)
    } else {
      Z1 <- cbind(Z1[, 1], dumvar[-(1:K), ], Z1[, -1])
      colnames(Z1) <- c("constant", colnames(dumvar), tmp[-1])
    }
  }
  M00 <- crossprod(Z0)/N
  M11 <- crossprod(Z1)/N
  MKK <- crossprod(ZK)/N
  M01 <- crossprod(Z0, Z1)/N
  M0K <- crossprod(Z0, ZK)/N
  MK0 <- crossprod(ZK, Z0)/N
  M10 <- crossprod(Z1, Z0)/N
  M1K <- crossprod(Z1, ZK)/N
  MK1 <- crossprod(ZK, Z1)/N
  M11inv <- solve(M11)
  R0 <- Z0 - t(M01 %*% M11inv %*% t(Z1))
  RK <- ZK - t(MK1 %*% M11inv %*% t(Z1))
  S00 <- M00 - M01 %*% M11inv %*% M10
  S0K <- M0K - M01 %*% M11inv %*% M1K
  SK0 <- MK0 - MK1 %*% M11inv %*% M10
  SKK <- MKK - MK1 %*% M11inv %*% M1K
  Ctemp <- chol(SKK, pivot = TRUE)
  pivot <- attr(Ctemp, "pivot")
  oo <- order(pivot)
  C <- t(Ctemp[, oo])
  Cinv <- solve(C)
  S00inv <- solve(S00)
  valeigen <- eigen(Cinv %*% SK0 %*% S00inv %*% S0K %*% t(Cinv))
  lambda <- valeigen$values
  e <- valeigen$vector
  V <- t(Cinv) %*% e
  Vorg <- V
  V <- sapply(1:P, function(x) V[, x]/V[1, x])
  W <- S0K %*% V %*% solve(t(V) %*% SKK %*% V)
  PI <- S0K %*% solve(SKK)
  DELTA <- S00 - S0K %*% V %*% solve(t(V) %*% SKK %*% V) %*% t(V) %*% SK0
  GAMMA <- M01 %*% M11inv - PI %*% MK1 %*% M11inv
  if (type == "trace") {
    type <- "trace statistic"
    teststat <- as.matrix(rev(sapply(idx, function(x) -N * sum(log(1 - lambda[(x + 1):P])))))
    colnames(teststat) <- "trace"
    if (arrsel > 11) {
      cval <- NULL
    } else {
      cval <- round(cvals[1:arrsel, , 2], 2)
      colnames(cval) <- c("10pct", "5pct", "1pct")
      rownames(cval) <- c(paste("r <= ", (arrsel - 1):1, " |", sep = ""), "r = 0  |")
    }
  } else if (type == "eigen") {
    type <- "maximal eigenvalue statistic (lambda max)"
    teststat <- as.matrix(rev(sapply(idx, function(x) -N * log(1 - lambda[x + 1]))))
    colnames(teststat) <- "lambda max."
    if (arrsel > 11) {
      cval <- NULL
    } else {
      cval <- round(cvals[1:arrsel, , 1], 2)
      colnames(cval) <- c("10pct", "5pct", "1pct")
      rownames(cval) <- c(paste("r <= ", (arrsel - 1):1, " |", sep = ""), "r = 0  |")
    }
  }
  colnames(V) <- colnames(ZK)
  rownames(V) <- colnames(ZK) 
  rownames(W) <- paste(colnames(x), ".d", sep = "")
  colnames(W) <- colnames(ZK)
  colnames(Vorg) <- colnames(V)
  rownames(Vorg) <- rownames(V)
  rownames(PI) <- rownames(W)
  colnames(PI) <- colnames(W)
  colnames(Z0) <- paste(colnames(x), ".d", sep="")
  colnames(R0) <- paste("R0", colnames(Z0), sep=".")
  colnames(RK) <- paste("RK", colnames(ZK), sep=".")
  rownames(GAMMA) <- rownames(W)

  new("ca.jo", x = x, Z0 = Z0, Z1 = Z1, ZK = ZK, type = type, model = model, ecdet = ecdet, lag = K, P = arrsel, season = season, dumvar = dumvar, cval = cval, teststat = as.vector(teststat), lambda = lambda, Vorg = Vorg, V = V, W = W, PI = PI, DELTA = DELTA, GAMMA = GAMMA, R0 = R0, RK = RK, bp = NA, test.name = "Johansen-Procedure", spec = spec, call = match.call())  
}

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urca documentation built on May 2, 2019, 2:08 a.m.